An early look at 2006 House races

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New England

Maine: Allen and Michaud both look safe. If Snowe runs for Governer one of them will probably run for Senate, but that's looking like a fairly big "if" right now.

New Hampshire: Bradley and Bass both look safe... while NH-2 is naturally Democratic (amazing how things change isn't it?) it'll only flip if Bass retires.

Vermont: Sanders is safe

Massachusetts: All ten incumbents are safe... if any of 'em retires I'd say the only district that *might* flip would be MA-10... even then it'd be a stretch.

Rhode Island: Langevin might run for Senate, but both districts are rock solid for anyone with a "D" next to their name.

Connecticut: Three out of five incumbents are safe as houses, but CT-2 *might* flip with a strong Democratic candidate (I doubt it though) and after his scare last year, I'm not sure what Shays will do in CT-4.

Next: New York

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New York

Long Island: Chances are that the GOP will try to regain a seat it never should have lost (NY-1) but although another competative race is likely, the chances are that they'll fail again... although they'll probably win it back when Bishop retires.
The other Long Island races will be pretty dull unless an incumbent retires...

NYC: I don't see any of these flipping any time soon. Could be some brutal primaries though.

Upstate: NY-27 has the potential to be competative although it depends what sort of record Higgins builds up in Congress. NY-29 was as close as it was because Kuhl had a messy divorce or something similer (can't remember exactly)... I don't think the Democrats will seriously target him though (it's very much a Republican district). Still, stranger things have happend.
Another suprisingly close district was NY-26... I'm not sure why. Can anyone who knows the district (Buffalo/Rochester suburbs by the look of it) tell me why?
Most districts in Upstate NY could become fairly competative if the incumbent retires.

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New Jersey

Unless someone retires, New Jersey isn't likely to be very interesting at House level next year; my guess is that the only half way competative race will be NJ-7, although even then I'd be suprised if Ferguson lost (barring a House GOP meltdown).
If someone retires, the South Jersey districts (except for NJ-1 o/c) could get *very* competative with the right candidates (and as this is NJ money and mafia "legitimate businessmen" connections)

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Why even bother discussing incumbents?  Gerrymandering and incumbency has assured >99% will be re-elected to the House.
Open seats are the only place where competition results in a chance to switch parties. 
Examples: in 2002 even with redistricting, only 2% of incumbents lost, but 20% of the open seats changed parties
In 2004 2% of the incumbents lost (most due to redistricting in TX), but 17% of the open seats changed parties

2006 may be a banner year for party switches, as already 53 Republicans and 38 Democrats have hinted at running for higher office or retiring.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Retire06.htm

I'm looking at all the races where possible... but your right in that big changes are often the result of one party being seriously unlucky with retirements+a swing away from that party.
I think you have to look for vunerable incumbents, but most incumbents are very safe (often more because of incumbency than gerrymandering.

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Pennsylvania

West: Unless an incumbent retires (and so far only Murtha has hinted at that... and thanks to the '02 gerrymandering there's no way the Dems can lose that district) it'll take a strong/star candidate to make any district there competative... talking of which there's a possibility that Heinz will run against Hart in PA-4. Unless there's a sizeable trend against the GOP I'd be suprised if she lost, but as it would generate a lot of media attention, weird things *could* happen.

Central and North East: Kanjorski's hinted that he might retire; under the old lines the district would have been fairly competative, but the addition of Scranton in the '02 gerrymander makes a repeat of 1980 very unlikely.
Other than that...

South East: The award for "Congressman most likely to be job hunting after 2006" goes to Gerlach. If an incumbent comes very close to losing to an underfunded nobody, that incumbent is in serious trouble.
As for Schwartz, Dent and Fitzpatrick... it really depends what sort of record they build up in Congress (both votes and constituency work). It's too early to tell right now.
A district that could be interesting is Weldon's if he retires: it's over 60% Republican but voted for Kerry (I think so anyways) last year and had a Democratic congressman in the late '70's and early '80's.

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It would have to be very weird. She's a well-liked Congresswoman and her new spot on Ways and Means will help her.

True (I'd be suprised if she lost, barring a big national trend and/or a scandel o/c).
Still, I'd expect it'll be the closest race she's had in that district (which isn't saying a lot...)

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It would have to be very weird. She's a well-liked Congresswoman and her new spot on Ways and Means will help her.

True (I'd be suprised if she lost, barring a big national trend and/or a scandel o/c).
Still, I'd expect it'll be the closest race she's had in that district (which isn't saying a lot...)

It probably would be one of the closest. I wouldn't expect the 65-35 type turnouts but I don't see her receiving less than 54% of the vote.

She got something like 59% in 2000

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I honestly don't see Chris Heinz making the race much closer.

"Much" is a relative term. As is "closer" ;-)

If he ran I'm fairly sure it would be the closeest race she's ever had in PA-4... but this does not mean that it will be close... like I said barring a large national swing away from the GOP (either nationally or just in Pennsylvania) or some sort of scandel she's safe enough.

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Yipe - if that happened, the airwaves will become unsafe due to all the political advertising! O_O

Especially if you live in the Albuquerque area... like you do... I hope for your sake that it doesn't get negative (hah!)

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Maryland, DC, Delaware

Nowt interesting going on: MD has been gerrymandered to the point of zero competative districts (one of very, very few states where this has actually happend. I hope that it's not the start of a trend...) and Castle is as safe as... well a castle actually, in Delaware... although if he retires there could be a very competative race (maybe, gasps, Dela-where will finally get some national attention?)

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The Virginias

West Virginia

Unless Byrd decides to retire from the Senate (which doesn't look all that likely) they'll only be one interesting House race in WV next year, WV-2. Former State Party chair, Callaghan, has announced he's running for Congress, last year's candidate (Wells) has been raising his profile in the eastern half of the district... and despite saying that voters don't want to be bothered by more campaigning for a while yet, Capito is still fundraising and don't be suprised if she starts voting like a Democrat on certain economic issues more than she already does...

Virginia

Unless an incumbent retires (and it looks like Moron[/b] Moran might) there's no way a VA seat flips... and seeing as how Moron always underpreforms in his district...
If one of the Reps. for the non-gerrymandered rural districts retires there'd be an extremely competative race, but that looks unlikely right now.