Strange county results

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In yet another doomed attempt to rescue the 2004 Results Forum from partisan trolls...

Which county results seem strange to you? Both who won and swings etc. count.

Interesting to see how many can be explained

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Furthermore, Franklin and Gallatin were carried by Mondale over Reagan in the 1984 landslide. The fact that GWB carried them all in 2004 says something about the change in rural middle american voting patterns, IMO.

That Kerry managed to lose those two counties says more about where his campaign went wrong... a failure to adress economic issues (or even to make it the main plank of his campaign) and too much pandering to liberals as opposed to Democrats.

Interestingly, in Frankin turnout was more or less the same as last time round... it's seems as though 2000 or so voters just went "f*** you" and switched their votes and in Gallatin turnout actually fell slightly...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This year, Mono and Alpine County, California, looked weirdly out of place. The counties, located on the Nevada border, voted 49.2-49.1 Kerry and 53.2-44.4 Kerry, respectively. They were fairly close for eastern California counties in 2000, but their history makes the switch a surprise. They did not go Clinton, even in the 1992 landslide, although both were won by Bush with less than 40% of the vote.

Mono County voted Nixon over Humphrey in 1968, by 64.3%-26.5%, making it the most Republican county in the state (even over Orange). Alpine voted 59.3%-32.8%.

In 1964, both counties voted Goldwater, Alpine 57.7-42.3 and Mono 56.1-43.9. The only other counties to do so were Orange (55.9-44.0), San Diego (50.3-49.7), and Sutter (51.6-48.3).

Yucca Mountain

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Take a look at the Hawai'i overseas vote 2000 and 2004.

55% D in 2000, 80% D in 2004. Why did that happen?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

80 overseas votes in 2000/428 in 2004

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oakland is very wealthy, and leans libertarian (economically conservative, socially liberal). Macomb is more working class, and leans populist (economically liberal, socially conservative). Thus, as social issues have become more important and economic issues less so, these counties are slowly switching allegiances from what they once were.

Macomb has voted Republican in most Presidential elections since the '60's, with the exception of '96 and '00. A lot of the county seems to have gentrified (the south of the county is still mostly Democratic though). A bit like Anoka county, MN actually.
Oakland went to Kerry by just under 3000 votes because of a decent turnout in Pontiac and just enough socially liberal suburbanites worried by Bush's wedge issue policies (a bit of a freak result actually).

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True. Interestingly, suburban Detroit swung away from Kerry this year. Were it not for non-Detriot metro Democratic areas, Bush would have won Michigan.