Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

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Labour 40, LDem 11, SNP 6, Con 1, Ind Labour (elected as Labour) 1

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That would be tantamount to a coup.

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There are certainly some parallels, DL. At least the campaign has not been as bitter as that in Quebec. Interesting post.

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FYI, there was no national election in the UK between 1935 and 1945 due to WW2, BUT during the war a National Government was formed with Labour cabinet ministers along side Tories

And there was literally the prospect of invasion and military occupation by a genocidal dictatorship.

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It is interesting to me how much traction this is getting considering just how loyal Scotland has historically been to England.

This is a misunderstanding of the situation; Scotland was not an English possession but joined the Union as a comparatively equal partner ('comparatively' due to the vast population disparity). The old ideology of Scottish Unionism was effectively a form of Scottish Nationalism; by being united with England, Scotland could benefit from the growth of Empire (and indeed it did so disproportionately). Scotland retained (amongst other things) separate legal, administrative, religious and educational systems and also kept its monetary peculiarities.¹ Scottish interests would be protected at Westminster by a larger cohort of Scottish MPs than its population strictly deserved. Notably the Conservatives in Scotland were organised as a separate political party (the Scottish Unionists) until the 1960s. This system started breaking down in the postwar decades as the twin pillars of the Scottish economy (Empire & related sundries and heavy industry) began to crumble, while the political calculus was permanently changed by the discovery of North Sea Oil. The situation was changed further (if inadvertently) by the Thatcher government, which had a new and shocking lack of respect for Scottish interests.² This led to a crisis of confidence in the Union that has never really abated; devolution has not sated this - as was hoped by the Blair government - but probably made matters a good deal more civilised; Scotland and the rest of Britain have at least been spared the 1918 General Election in Ireland scenario.

<sub>1. It has its own banknotes which are printed by individual banks. In many respects Scotland feels like a palpably different country to England in a way that Wales - road signs aside - does not.

2. Or at least that was how most Scots saw things, and that's what's relevant here.</sub>

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Why would a boundary dispute of the Middle Ages be a problem today? I suppose it would be a bit of a bugger for the town's football club (who play in the Scottish system), mind.

What will be the future of the SNP in an independent Scotland?

They would attempt to become Fianna Fail Alba (more or less). Whether they'd be successful in that is impossible to tell.

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Local news silliness.

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Considering that none of you are Scottish there is perhaps such a thing as being too invested?

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Perhaps their methodology is different?

Yes, they do face-to-face interviews.

Recent-to-Recentish TNS polls, today's in bold:

No 39, Yes 38
No 45, Yes 32
No 41, Yes 32
No 46, Yes 32
No 42, Yes 30
No 42, Yes 30
No 41, Yes 29

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In 2007 the SNP lead throughout (and before) the campaign.

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I wonder if Scots realise that independence might not imply sovereignty.

We have now reached the slightly ridiculous situation where both campaigns are technically offering something not dissimilar to what the other is...

(personally I wouldn't buy a used car off either)

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Most people aren't that sociopathic.

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A good few thousand rUKers living in Scotland going without the vote next Thursday...

Over 700,000 actually.

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Survation poll: No 48, Yes 42

_{Figures rounded.}

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All Survation polls taken during the official campaign period, with the new one in bold to avoid confusion:

No 48, Yes 42
No 48, Yes 42
No 50, Yes 37
No 46, Yes 40
No 46, Yes 41
No 44, Yes 39

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For reference, the difference between the Labour percentage in Scotland and across the whole of the UK since 1945:

1945: -0.1
1950: +0.1
1951: -0.9
1955: +0.3
1959: +2.8
1964: +4.8
1966: +1.7
1970: +1.4
1974: -0.5
1974: -3.0
1979: +4.6
1983: +7.5
1987: +11.6
1992: +4.5
1997: +2.4
2001: +3.2
2005: +4.2
2010: +13.0

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Joshua Rozenberg - law journalist - has a bit of trollish fun

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ComRes have polled the two local authority areas on the English border:

Dumfries & Galloway: No 67%, Yes 33%
Borders: No 68%, Yes 32%

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Full figures are: No 50, Yes 45, Undecided 6

All YouGov polls since the start of the official campaign period, the new one in bold:

50 45
45 47
48 42
51 38
55 35
54 35
53 36

(No on the left, Yes on the right)

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Yes, I thought that looked strange. It's how its entered on the wikipedia article, lol

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Its the official number on the YouGov website as well.

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I like the slightly reproachful wording in the brackets.

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The Western Isles will probably be one of the strongest Yes areas in the country.

Though apparently the Wee Frees are against.

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If Scotland can dissolve its union with a 50%+1 vote

Actually it can't. Referendums in the UK are technically always advisory referendums because of Parliamentary Supremacy (i.e. in practical terms sovereignty lies with Parliament, which cannot be bound by decisions made by other authorities or even - this is the best bit - itself).* Were Scotland to vote for independence, the decision must be (at the very least) rubber stamped by Parliament at some point. A really, really narrow win for Yes would thus have the potential to create quite the constitutional clusterfyck.

_{*There are also certain - currently entirely theoretical - complications regarding the Act of Union, but those are best left undisturbed for now...}

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The Western Isles will probably be one of the strongest Yes areas in the country.

Though apparently the Wee Frees are against.

They're pretty much against everything

I gather that they do now allow the use of musical instruments in church. Admittedly the vote was narrow and some ministers resigned in protest.