Ontario 2011 (6th October)

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NDP fail to gain either Windsor seat. But gain Essex.

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Although they bombed federally, I wonder if the Liberals are ahead due to the Condo polls.  Those have grown dramatically so if they are coming in faster than the older parts of the riding that could explain why the NDP is trailing.

Right now only a third of polls there are in. Do condo polls tend to come in early?

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Lots of fails for the NDP tonight, but there are some bright spots. Perhaps Ford getting elected was the worst thing to happen for the NDP for tonight.

In the context of the federal breakthrough, it looks pretty disappointing (even if things break the right way in all the tight races left). In the context of Ontario provincial politics, less so. This result will still be the best since the disaster of the Rae government. Hey, just eight years ago the NDP were down to seven seats and had not made a gain since 1990...

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Ah, hurry up Toronto!

Anyways, there's a close race of (ahem) Shakespearian proportions in Perth-Wellington.

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And Oshawa must be the biggest fools' gold for the NDP, ever.

That town is such a flirt.

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We might not know until after the weekend or later as this may come down to recounts.  Either way I think McGuinty has 2 years guaranteed as you only need a few members to abstain to pass any bill.  And even if he gets a majority a few losses in by-elections could drop it to a minority.  I believe in Manitoba in 1988, the NDP got a majority, but due to a few defections on a budget bill, they got defeated in 1990.

Oh, absolutely. This could just be chapter one; a minority government is not always a stable place to be. What be the Ontario law on recounts? Loads of tight races.

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Bramalea-Gore-Malton is looking good for NDP. Trinity-Spadina, Sudbrury and York South-Weston are real nail bitters.

Davenport too.

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NDP pull ahead in Trinity-Spadina. Extremely close still.

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NDP pull ahead in Trinity-Spadina. Extremely close still.

Where do you see this? Libs still ahead on Elections Ontario site.

CBC site. Who also declare Bramalea-Gore-Malton for the NDP.

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Glengarry-Prescott-Russell isn't over either.

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Actually that's there's at least a faint feeling of disappointment over the Ontario NDP's best result since the awful terribleness (and an entirely credible one by pre-1990 standards) is no bad thing. Shows a real shift in mentality and all that; a good result for a third party isn't really what's wanted, even though such a result would have been worth committing murder for just four years ago.

But, more objectively, this isn't a bad base of seats to work out something better from. And some encouraging patterns elsewhere, I think. Especially if the lessons that can be drawn from this campaign (and the big one earlier this year) are actually drawn.

Just have to hope that they don't do something really stupid and ask for cabinet posts.

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That's such a strange map in parts. Very, very odd election.

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Who are the FP? Fascists?

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The only sub-ten there was Thornhill, by the look of it.

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Teddy, you're from PEI for God's sake. Which makes you, by definition, about eighty times more hickish than anyone from rural Ontario, even if you now live in Toronto...

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Remember: what ought to make even less sense than the Greens in Duff-Cal are (at least until this year's elections) the Greens in Grey-Bruce-OS...

What was the reason for that anyway? Obviously that was near where (or actually where?) there was that whole Walkerton unpleasantness, but environmental/public health disaster doesn't usually lead on so neatly to Greenie success.

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Suppose it's also interesting that you have consistently higher Greenie percentages on the north side of the Oak Ridges Moraine (a pattern that Dufferin-Caledon fits in with, obviously).