Tennessee

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tennessee is a very strange state (which is partially why I like it )... due to the fact that it's still divided on Civil War lines it's always a winnable state for both parties...
Now then...
A SUSA poll has Bush leading by 11% (not sure what MoE is though)
A Mason Dixon poll has Bush leading by 4% (inside MoE)
A poll by "The Survey Group/MTSU" has Bush leading by 4% (inside MoE)

Tennessee'll depend on whether the Dem turnout in Mid Tennessee can match the GOP turnout in East Tennessee...

Issues? Hah! Who needs issues when you can decide elections on good ol' tribal loyalties!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Arkansas is a populist state, but not a liberal state.

It depends how the word "liberal" is defined.
In Arkansas liberal might refer to economic issues only (just a guess).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The GOP do not have a party machine in most of Arkansas, BTW.
They have a very good one in the Ozarks (Ouchita and Boston Mountains to be pedantic), but everywhere else is as Democrat as Southern WV.

Arkansas is a very poor state (Mississippi Valley+Ozarks), and as a result you get a hell of a lot more White populists that actually vote than in most of the rest of the South.

The East of the state does have a high Black population, but not by Southern levels.
The North (there's a small steel industry in CD-1) the Centre and the South (where Bill Clinton's from) have loads of populists etc... while the North West is strong Republican.