2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Liberal Party in SK is more like the Libertarian Party, so it's fitting that they performed as they did.

Especially as everyone in Saskatchewan likes them at least a little bit of social democracy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyways, the final result were 49 9. The final results in 1982 were 55 9. So, technically, this wasn't as bad as 1982.

One weird detail about 1982, of course, was that the NDP lost three of the seats they held in 1982 at the next election, in which they made substantial gains.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the NDP ever plans to get back to government in the province they will need to be able to win more than just the cities.

I suspect that they'll also need not to trail by 32pts. Actually the distribution of their vote looks (based on a couple of quick glances) to be fairly healthy from that point of view.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, the NDP aren't limited to urban ridings, so there's nowt to worry about from that perspective...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The NDP does not have any rural ridings. The only non-urban ridings they hold are barren.

The NDP barely has any ridings, so this election probably isn't a good way to judge that.

It's also a funny definition of rural that doesn't include the two huge northern ridings. Of course we're dealing some sort of pastoral ideal here or something.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al: No place in Europe matches with the barren far north, same with the USA even outside Alaska. You can not compare rural politics to barren politics, especially when you consider that barren Canada is full of left voting natives

No agricultural area in Europe matches with agricultural areas (even densely populated ones) in North America either. So?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The term "Rural" when relating to politics has certain connotations which do not hold for the ridings I've termed "Barren" here in Canada, and thus when talking about the Rural-Urban divide, adding "Barren" ridings to either is misleading.

Yes, yes; by 'rural' you actually mean agricultural... but are prepared to add some random parts of the commuter belt (any commuter belt) to the list if the area is pretty enough. In any case, your big point was wrong; not all of the NDP's remaining seats are urban. Besides, it's not that long ago that the Sask Party held no seats in the cities, and now look at where they are. There is certainly a rural/urban divide in Saskatchewan, but it's not as crude as is often assumed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rural implies agriculture as the major economic driver in the electorate (possibly including food manufacturing and the manufacture and sale of agricultural machines). If agriculture is not dominant throughout those ridings, than perhaps the words "regional" or "remote" might be useful?

But isn't that a very specific Australian usage that comes (in part) from the emergence of a large agrarian political movement? How common was it before the Country Party turned up? (serious question, actually. This sort of thing is interesting).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Probably, I would suspect, for much the same reason as the rural seats of Athabasca and Cumberland voted for the NDP.

Very similar reasons anyway. Odd question though; is rurality defined by 'whiteness'? Because that's a pretty dubious road to head down...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Errors possible, as always.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think most of Meadow Lake and Saskatchewan Rivers are in D-M-CR, along with Cumberland and Athabasca.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I argue the opposite, it is not that only rural areas are white, it is that aboriginal areas can not be counted as "rural" because people there vote more based on their background than they do based on where they live.

Farmers do the same, I think you'll find.

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Why the surprise? It was always thus.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

once the rebuilding starts, the main rural/small city targets will be obvious... Cute Knife-Turtleford and Meadow Lake in the NW... light green south of Athabasca. As well as both PA ridings and MJ Wakamow.

How about Yorkton?

Held up until 2007 (unless I'm remembering wrong) so it would be an odd one to abandon all hope of.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I guess I'd presumed the southeast was also just as strong. I admit I'm not as familiar with Sask politics as I am with other provinces.

Well, parts of the south east are; Estevan was was in the top tier of Sask Party leads (over 60pts) and was once Grant Devine's patch, and there was a collection of PC ridings there even in the 1991 NDP landslide.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think I'll bother doing one for the Sask Party; we have a de facto one anyway.

So, yeah. There is a rural/urban dimension to voting patterns in Saskatchewan, but (as you can see quite clearly from this map) it's a little more complicated than is frequently assumed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The weak NDP area of SK is basically this map.



All the plains states have this issue. As you move west, even long before the mountains start, the fertile wheat-growing territory transitions into a sort of dry ranching upland that is very sparsely populated and even more ultra-conservative. See also the larger size of the provincial ridings in the southwest; there's practically no-one there.

(Clearly this is my month for environmental causes of voting patterns).

Good stuff. There are a few exceptions, but the general pattern holds very well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One reason why they did (relatively) well there federally was because the Tories ran (bizarrely) a paper candidate in a rock solid seat. Though wasn't Leithbridge always one of the weaker areas for Reform/CA? in non-metropolitan Alberta?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, I think we've just tended to shoehorn any such maps into elections threads. But it would be a good idea.