2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

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You may end up with an almost random distribution of seats.

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The government's rebound there seems to be fairly impressive, given how deep the hole was just a few months ago.

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Yeah, the fact that they've bounced back so well (they were down by double digits earlier this year) seems to hint that previous poor polling numbers were mostly down to fatigue.

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Translation: they're just trying to survive.

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Two Liberal incumbents are retiring though...

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Impressive fightback. And will be even if it doesn't work out in the end.

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The decline of the Newfie Liberals is a remarkable (and in some ways shocking) thing. Because what's happened over the past decade goes beyond merely being on the wrong side of landslides and because of how important the party has been in the history of the place.

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There is a precedent for a party going from being in government and even a natural governing party of a province - to being dead in very short order.

True; obviously you've mentioned the most remarkable example, but there's also the Saskatchewan PCs, the SoCreds, the old conservative Liberals in Manitoba and Saskatchewan... to say nothing of the near-death experiences of once-governing NDP's in a couple of provinces. Given the massive historical importance of the Newfie Liberals, this would be up there with the UN, even if the fall won't have been quite as dramatic. If it happens.

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I know I've said this before, but there's nowt wrong in repeating such things; your outline maps are wonderful.

Anyways, bizarre patterns.

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What sort of time - GMT - will the results start to do that trickle-in-thing?

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The usual hilarious patterns from very early results there to see, if only briefly.

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Remember to be a little careful with some individual ridings; it's still comparatively early.

But, yeah, right now it would be surprising if the NDP lost. Remarkable electoral comeback by the look of it.

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Anyone else bothered by a large NDP majority on a minority of the popular vote?

It doesn't seem very surprising, from my perspective. The PCs seem like they ring up huge majorities in their ridings in the south, but aren't breaking through much anywhere else.

And given that Winnipeg is hardly Barnsley-on-the-Prairies, it isn't as though that isn't partially their own fault...

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Interlake and Swan River have swapped. Swan River looks like it's heading for an NDP hold, Interlake still competitive. Looks like the PCs will hold Brandon West and River East, as well.

Not much of Swan River is in yet. Interlake does look like a nailbiter though...

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Surprisingly/happily there are maps on Wikipedia so...



Not entirely clear though.

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What's very telling is that, for the most part, it's higher in seats where there was (at least the perception of) a competitive race.

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Could not sleep. So thought... why not do something productive. Work not a great idea at such an hour, however. Therefore...

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Anyways, I take it that everyone noticed that Maloway underperformed in Elmwood?

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Regarding your signature... he now looks like the bastard child of Milhouse and Dracula.

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Intriguing set of results, even for Newfies. It would have been nice if the NDP had edged the Liberals in terms of seats, but until very recently they were never a factor in the province, and now they certainly are... so...

Also interesting to see that the Liberal vote didn't totally evaporate after all. The next election there may be very interesting.

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Oh, can I just say at the NDP winning the Straits? Of course I can. I am the Lord and Master of this board.

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lol, Aylward didn't even come close to winning: PC 49.3, Lib 32.7, NDP 16.5, NA 1.5

Anyways, looking over the results, Labrador West is the one genuine disappointment to me. They actually came closer next door in Lake Melville. Backlash against the imprisoned former MHA, or a popular incumbent? Both?

Interesting result just spotted: Liberals fall to just 12% in Bellevue, which used to be a stronghold and then some.

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The NDP Candidate was "new" to the area.

Ah, right. There we are then.

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Excellent; I'll check it in the morning.

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Interesting that every single Liberal MHA holds a seat west of White Bay and that they were only genuinely competitive in one seat east of it. So... why was there a Genepool Dead Cat Bounce in far the west of the island, but something close to the electoral extinction of the Genepool Vote in almost every seat further east? I suppose the Liberal leader being from the west may have been a factor, even if he couldn't win his own seat, but I'd be interested in hearing other theories (especially if they add up, as that one doesn't).