UK: Next Conservative leader

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fox's unique and fascinating use of the English language is worth mentioning here, of course.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No love for Boris Johnson here...

Why would he want to go back to being an MP?

No matter how weak a candidate Livingstone is, Johnson has only got (at best) a 50% chance of re-election; the second set of elections is usually brutal for governments in their first term.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Right. Sorry. I meant elections for local authorities and devolved governments. From the second year onwards the governing party tends to do very badly (the first year seems to depend on other factors; at the very least seats gained in opposition are lost by the bucketload). London is interesting because we don't even have to look at municipal elections; London always had its own government in some form or other until Mrs Thatcher decided it was irritating her.

The GLC covered the same area as the contemporary GLA and existed from the mid 1960s until the mid 1980s. It had six elections during its lifetime and the main party in Opposition won a majority every single time. In four out of five elections after the first the swing was above 10pts.

Now, that Livingstone won in 2004 (even as his party lost the GLA elections on the same day) shows that this anti-national-incumbent swing isn't as strong under the Mayoral system, but it's still there. Johnson knows this, which is why he's been as carefully critical of the government as he has been.