MI-9: Rossman's Independent Polling: Raczkowski (R) 45% Peters (D) 40.7% (user search)
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  MI-9: Rossman's Independent Polling: Raczkowski (R) 45% Peters (D) 40.7% (search mode)
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Author Topic: MI-9: Rossman's Independent Polling: Raczkowski (R) 45% Peters (D) 40.7%  (Read 2104 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,902
United Kingdom


« on: September 17, 2010, 04:30:00 PM »

Is there any reason to assume that Dingell might be in trouble besides the random grumblings of a very old man? The district doesn't just include the traditional Dingell electorate of working class 'ethnic' whites forever moving south, but includes the area around Ann Arbor.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,902
United Kingdom


« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2010, 06:25:47 PM »

From what I recall this seat is a lot like PA-06 or a reverse PA-12. The slightly Democratic PVI hides the fact that it is highly Republican locally and there is little to no Democratic party. The same pretty much applies to MI-7. Hence the Democrats massively underperformed Obama in both in 2008, even without a wave, 7 and 9 would be hard to hold with a blowout at the top of the ticket.

Correct; this is a very affluent area. Overwhelmingly white collar workforce, over 40% with degrees (if I'm remembering right), high rates of managerial and professional occupations, 80% white and no serious pockets of poverty.
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