Scottish Parliamentary Elections (May 5, 2011)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Scotland's love affair with Labour is strictly a Westminster affair.

For now. Things might be quite different by next year, though it's far too early to be sure of anything IMO.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

TNS-BMRB used to be TNS-System Three, did they not? If so... um... hmm...

Not that I doubt that we're polling well in Scotland or anything, but I wouldn't pay much attention to those figures except for that...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have redistributed results for the new constituencies been published yet?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A safe seat has just opened up; Jack (now Lord) McConnell is to retire.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some of those look to be radically different from the first set. By old school do you mean he used local government figures?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Transport Minister Stewart Stevenson has resigned because of the snow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Transport Minister Stewart Stevenson has resigned because of the snow.

Wut?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11978544

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's really ridiculous.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wendy Alexander will be standing down as an MSP

Not really surprising given everything. Interesting that she's doing so so late though; successful attempt to shaft someone internally?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

She's Unison if I remember right, so wouldn't be entirely surprising if true.

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Meanwhile, Bill Aitken has been resigned.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

News, news, new... the LibDem candidate for Aberdeen Donside is being prosecuted for soliciting prostitutes and so is no longer the LibDem candidate for Aberdeen Donside.

He is sixty four years old.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New YouGov poll...

Constituency: Labour 41%, SNP 32%, Con 15%, LDem 7%
Regional: Labour 40%, SNP 28%, Con 15%, LDem 7%, Greens 6%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think with YouGov you should either take it or leave it; the way they poll largely involves taking inherently unrepresentative samples and making them 'look right' (and always has done; it's why they were a controversial company right from the start), rather than anything resembling normal polling methods.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why's a Mid Wales/North Shropshire football club conducting polls of Scottish voting intentions?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They're thinking of relocating again. Oswestry is too close for comfort to Llansantffraid.

A lot of Welsh clubs have been trying to move grounds of late, without much success. Bangor City were supposed to move away from Farrar Road to a new site on the outskirts years ago, but things have fallen through a couple of times. Will probably happen at some point because the stadium is falling to pieces and the area it's in is a bit of a shithole these days.

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

For the life of me, I don't understand why the Tories don't want to at least privately encourage Scottish independence, since that would give them very nearly a permanent majority

Probably one of the sillier myths about British politics and also one of the most popular.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I should try my hand at making up a poll. So long as the figures look vaguely plausible (mind you, Labour and the SNP taking 80% between them?), who'd know?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Might there not have been some degree of on-the-day anti-Government voting benefitting the Tories in the past few elections? (honest question)

The Scottish Tories are no longer in a position to be able to benefit much from that. What they ought to be concerned about is something a little different; changed turnout patterns (as in partisan, not geographical) now that Labour are in opposition in Westminster. Though that's more a threat to their position out here than up there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A relatively close race with Labour winning but both the big two increasing support might make the aftermath somewhat problematic.

Would Scottish Labour like working with the Greens anyway? Scotland isn't London, after all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would Scottish Labour like working with the Greens anyway? Scotland isn't London, after all.

Events dear boy...

Scottish Labour support nuclear power and replacement plants. The Greens do not and neither do the SNP. Same goes for Faslane. These are big sticking points and may be more so given recent developments.

Isn't their also the issue of Labour's Catholic base perhaps not being less than entirely keen about the Green Party's education policy?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The LibDem's number one on the Central Scotland list has quit the party and is to run as an independent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It was by The New Saints, so is best ignored.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparent YouGov

SNP 40
Labour 39
Tory 11
Lib Dem 5

Nothing yet on the regionals.

They are out now.

wtf

Constituency:SNP 40%, Lab 39%, Con 11%, LD 5%
Regional: Lab 39%, SNP 32%, Con 12%, Grn 6%, LD 5%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Extraordinary news; there appear to be several constituencies where the LibDems have failed to find a candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Extraordinary news; there appear to be several constituencies where the LibDems have failed to find a candidate.

Namely....?

Clydesdale appears to have been confirmed. There are rumours about others, but I've not checked.