Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2010 Discussion Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Quick (and far too basic) overview of the rules. The NEC has to meet to establish a timetable, there will then be a period for nominations. There will then be a period of campaigning and postal ballots will be sent out to all Party Members, all MPs and MEPs, and all levy-paying Trade Unionists and members of Socialist Societies. A Special Conference will be held at which the votes will be counted and a Leader elected. The process takes quite a while; as we all remember from 2007, even an unopposed nomination (very unlikely) isn't settled quickly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who else might stand?

As no one who might have thought about running lost on Thursday, the list of possible candidates is really, really, really long. We're talking half the semi-former Cabinet here. And that's ignoring the possibility of any well-regarded backbenchers running. In practice there won't be that many candidates because of the nomination rules. Could be a very interesting, and very unpredictable, contest.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For the record, the following people ran in the Deputy Leadership Election back in 2007:

Harriet Harman (Camberwell & Peckham)
Alan Johnson (Hull West & Hessle)
Jon Cruddas (Dagenham & Rainham)
Hilary Benn (Leeds Central)
Hazel Blears (Salford & Eccles)

Blears did really badly and was dragged through the mud during the expenses weirdness, so presumably won't run. Hain, I don't know. He's done great things with Welsh Labour since he was given his old job back, but would struggle in a leadership contest (and knows it).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As a random aside, Alan Johnson was in a translated Icelandic documentary shown on BBC 4 last night, about the Cod Wars.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Harman appears to have ruled herself out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Brown's resignation has taken immediate effect; Harriet Harman is now the Acting Leader and the timetable for electing a new Leader has been greatly sped up. Harman is the second woman to be Acting Leader; the first was Margaret Beckett between the death of John Smith and the election of Tony Blair.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, and I think we still have to have Shadow Cabinet elections. Not sure when they have to be held, if we're having them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Will Harman stand in the leadership election?

She ruled herself out immediately. I suppose she might go back on that, but it seems unlikely; she's been an MP since 1982.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Alan Johnson has said that he won't run. He will be backing David Miliband 'if' he runs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Alan Johnson has said that he won't run. He will be backing David Miliband 'if' he runs.

If Johnson doesn't run, how will be the "Old Labour" candidate? If there will be one.

Johnson was never likely to be that sort of candidate anyway; he's firmly on the right of the Party, just as Miliband is (and as Miliband's brother isn't). Quite a few possible candidates might try to position themselves as traditionalists in some ways, but it depends who runs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From what I've seen of him, David Miliband seems like a pretty good leader-type person, young and charismatic and all, but which of the candidates should a fan of Tony Benn who thinks Blairism is terrible (like myself) be rooting for here?

Depends if you want to root for a candidate who might win or root for the inevitable hopeless hard left candidate?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does it matter for Cruddas' and Balls' candidacies that their seats aren't safe?

Leaders tend to get a sizeable bonus in their constituency for whatever reason. Labour has selected Leaders without safe seats in the past; Callaghan was the last.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When was the last time the leader of either of the three main parties lost their seat?

1945 (Liberals). The last time the Leader of the Opposition did so was in 1931 when Arthur Henderson was defeated in Burnley.

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The NEC has yet to decide on a timetable. There used to be a rule that you have to be a member for a given number of months to vote in internal elections, though I forget the number of months and whether it's still in force.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not while Prime Minister. However, Ramsay McDonald was defeated (by an official Labour candidate, himself running as National Labour) in the 1935 election, a few months after resigning as Prime Minister,

By Manny Shinwell. 38,380 to 17,882.

Probably the closest in the 20th century would be Balfour in 1906 (defeated at Manchester East). Only reason why he wasn't PM at the time was because his government actually resigned in advance of the election, even though it had a majority in the Commons. He was also the last leader of the Tories to lose his seat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But they're brothers. Do they hate each other or something? This is like something out of a movie.

You have to remember that there's was not an ordinary upbringing. Their father was Ralph Miliband, the Marxist academic best known for Parliamentary Socialism (which, given the careers of his sons, is a hilarious fact) and he raised his children accordingly. Ed is also very different from David in his politics; he's much more left-wing. Might actually be to the left of Cruddas in some respects.

Anyway, while I wouldn't be surprised if Ed runs, I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't either. He would certainly be a more interesting leader than David and has the advantage of not looking like a tool.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's looking increasingly likely that Cruddas will run, which would be a good thing for the Party, regardless of his chances (which might be better than a lot of pundits think; for some reason they seem to be forgetting quite how close he came to becoming Deputy Leader in 2007) as he's an intelligent man with a greater understanding of political sociology than is usual for a politician.

There have been suggestions that Balls might not run because of the narrow margin in his seat. The same factor might apply to Denham.

One to watch - perhaps - is Burnham. Northern, young, working class background, safe seat and quite traditional-sounding in some ways.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ed Miliband is reported to have told his CLP that he's running.

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Oliver Baldwin was a Labour MP when his father was a Tory PM.

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Remember, there's was not an ordinary upbringing.

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There's that, yeah. But it's a little stranger. Look up who their father was.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On the grounds that he doesn't want the job and doesn't like the thought of one day ending up as PM. Interesting; he might actually have won had he stood. As is, his endorsement will probably become quite important.

In other news, John McDonnell will run, as long as he can find enough support in the PLP to get on to the ballot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sentiments echoed, actually.

Something to consider, as a general point, are the rules regarding ballot access. I suspect we'll get at least one more 'serious' candidate, though it's hard to tell who (I mean, it's also possible that they'll be more than one, but that shouldn't be automatically assumed). With David on the Right* and Ed on the Left (the pattern of their endorsements are downright hilarious), there's a big gap there... but there are question marks over who'll fill it and in what way. We shall see.

*Though even David Miliband would likely be the most lefty leader Labour have had for a long time; movements within the Party that've been obvious for a while are being reflected in the first contested leadership election since the mid 1990s and the first with an uncertain outcome since... um... people outside the PLP got a say, actually. Kinnock, Smith and Blair all locked things up before a single ballot was posted in.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kinnock, Smith and Blair all locked things up before a single ballot was posted in.

And Brown didn't?
....... Oh.

Quite. I chose my words with care.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, and it's been confirmed that new members will be allowed to vote in the Leadership Election.