Two questions for British posters

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1. Notionals = notional results = estimates of the result from the previous election in a constituency affected by boundary changes. Lower level results are not released in British elections* and so it isn't possible to just add up ward level results. Instead, estimates based largely on databases of local election results are used. There's usually at least one howler every post-boundary review election.

2. This is a little bit controversial. Basically, 'swing' is the difference between the vote percentage changes of party x and party y. Example:

John Jones, Party X, -2.3
Thomas Thomas, Party y, +1.7
Swing = 2.0

Originally, swings were only calculated between the Labour and Conservative parties (even in constituencies where another party finished ahead of one of them) and there are still people who argue that this is the correct way of doing this (given the original point of working out swings - forecasting the election result from early results - they are essentially correct. Swings done in this way are called Butler Swings, after their inventor, David Butler), but the media has (for a long time now) worked out the swing between whoever comes first and second in a given constituency. The media being the media, the tend to do this even if one of the top two parties didn't actually run in the previous election.

*With the exception of GLA and Scottish Parliament elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (2005)

Quite the howler. Though they can be forgiven for that one due to the shape of the damn thing.

It's probably the most insane constituency currently existing, which is saying something.

Forest of Dean in 1997 is another one. Presumably nostalgia got the better of analysis in that case. The 1983 notionals for Brecon & Radnor were clearly 'wrong' as well... Huddersfield area was bad too, IIRC.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When you look at it, you genuinely have to stop and think; "where the hell are the Tory voters located?" Its only when you look at what's not in the seat then it starts to make sense.

Pretty much; it's also pretty clear that they didn't realise quite how strong Labour is in Dumfries proper. Though when you look at it town-by-town it becomes a little clearer... Lochmaben, Annan and Gretna are all Labour, but Moffat, Langholm and Lockerbie are all Tory. Sanquhar and Kirkconnel are very Labour but they're also pretty small, and then you have the far south of Lanarkshire and the area in the Borders.

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Urgh, yes. Depending on how they do it, we might get more than one. If they're logical and understand that English assumptions about rural-urban divisions ought not be applied to Wales, then we might get away with one or two. If not... urgh. Mid Wales will be an absolute mess.