Al, give me your synopsis on Nick Griffin / BNP / potential ceiling

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Stranger things have happened, but, yeah, seems like '0' at the moment. As noted already, the BNP didn't lead anywhere in the European elections (which were, as far as circumstances go, almost as favourable to them as elections are ever likely to get). They also didn't lead in Barking in the GLA elections (also favourable circumstances for the BNP).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently the BNP are piling into Barking where Griffin is standing with paper candidates elsewhere.

If that's true (and it sounds like the sort of thing they'd do, so...) then that's pretty stupid of them, what with local elections probably being on the same day.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

0 seats. Same with UKIP, the Greens and many other parties.

Greens could win a seat in Brighton (not convinced that they actually will, but it's possible). There are other places where they will poll well, but are unlikely to get close to winning, though maybe Norfolk will do different.

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lol

Your problem here isn't with democracy, but with fptp.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

and they've already reached their EU peak.

If they can't tap into other sources of support, yeah, maybe. My worry with the BNP is (and has been for a while) what might happen in the midterm of a Tory government, especially if they can hold onto most of their existing support. Admittedly, some of their image problems, inability to properly tap into rural racism and the existence of UKIP should prevent the worst-case scenario from happening.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

and they've already reached their EU peak.

If they can't tap into other sources of support, yeah, maybe. My worry with the BNP is (and has been for a while) what might happen in the midterm of a Tory government, especially if they can hold onto most of their existing support. Admittedly, some of their image problems, inability to properly tap into rural racism and the existence of UKIP should prevent the worst-case scenario from happening.

I imagine once the new Tory government is in full swing, alot of Labour's lost BNP support will slowly start to fall back.

That would depend on what Labour-in-Opposition ends up being like (far too early to tell at this stage)... even so... we're only talking of a minority of the BNP's current vote. A relatively large one, but a minority all the same.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour normally has to be leading going into the official campaign period to actually have a chance at winning. This still looks unlikely. Remember - the Tories have been heavily targetting the marginals and can outspend all other parties easily these days. There are still no signs that swing voters (as a block) have been thinking about swinging back.