Saturday, August 21, 2010 - Australian Federal Election

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Yeah, new boundaries in Tasmania. They used new ones in the state election, anyways.

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Magic!

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I'd be amazed if Abbott could survive an electoral defeat; he'd certainly be challenged.

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55% gives the ALP 99 seats to the Coalition's 48.

As for the Greens, they presumably have reasonable chances of gains in various gentrified inner-urban divisions, so long as the Liberals keep sending preferences in their direction. Their main target is Melbourne.

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I know it's pointless pointing it out as we all know anyway, but ABC's election coverage puts those of just about all other broadcasters everywhere to shame. Here, for example, is a list (with mini-biographies) of all retiring MPs: http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/departingmps.htm

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Since the 1940s, Queensland has usually been one of Labor's worst states at federal level. The 2007 result (only the third time since 1949) had a lot to do with Rudd being from there. The NSW figures are the astonishing ones though; that would be significantly higher than Whitlam at his peak.
But then regional breakdowns are something we should be wary of.

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Newspoll has it at 50-50, Kevin Rudd didn't even hit that low on Newspoll.

No, but then he wasn't removed because of published polls.

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Discussion begats discussion.

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Are we still all pretty sure that Labor will win? I'm not.

Sure? No, certainly not. The polls are close (another out today has a small Coalition lead, fwiw) after all. But incumbency can be a major advantage in Australia and, as such, Labor are clearly more likely to win. Say, two out of three or something like that.

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Are we still all pretty sure that Labor will win? I'm not.

Sure? No, certainly not. The polls are close (another out today has a small Coalition lead, fwiw) after all. But incumbency can be a major advantage in Australia and, as such, Labor are clearly more likely to win. Say, two out of three or something like that.

What's the new poll? I've only seen a marginals poll showing a 2.7% swing to the coalition today.

51/49 (Nielsen) according to Pollbludger. Some better news for Labor in Western Australia, though; a poll there has the Coalition leading 52/48 which is a small swing to Labor from 2007.

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Bad news for the ALP: a poll of the iconic swing-seat of Lindsay has them trailing 51/49 (swing of 7pts).
Good news for the ALP: a poll of the regional Queensland seat of Dawson (a shock ALP gain in 2007 and an open seat this time) shows a tie (swing of 2.4pts).

The record of constituency polling in Australia is, of course, as diabolical as it is elsewhere.

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51/49 (Nielsen)

The last Nielsen poll was 52/48 to the Coalition, fwiw.

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Newspoll: 52/48 to Labor.

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lolmorgan

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Australia's Mori?

Worse; Mori gets it right sometimes. They were *shudders* one of the more accurate companies in the last GE.

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Australia's Mori?

Worse; Mori gets it right sometimes. They were *shudders* one of the more accurate companies in the last GE.

Australia's Angus-Reid? Only it's Labor that do insanely well.

No. Morgan do face-to-face polls.

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Talking of rogue polls, did the infamous ICM poll in April 1997 (which showed a five-point Labour lead, the lowest for over four years) cause any Labour supporters to fear another 1992?

Most of the ones who were (irrationally) worried about that prospect were worried about it anyway.

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Senate polls are worse than useless.

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That's true, of course.

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Nielsen poll: ALP 53-49. Sizeable swing to the ALP from the last Nielsen poll.

Some marginals polling is out as well, and is pretty good for the ALP, especially in Victoria.

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That's true, of course.

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Nielsen poll: ALP 53-49. Sizeable swing to the ALP from the last Nielsen poll.

Some marginals polling is out as well, and is pretty good for the ALP, especially in Victoria.

That poll represented 102% of all Australian Opinion?.... Interesting.

Numbers are not my friends. You know that.

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I see people here are unfamiliar with the concept of the 'wind-up' .

Was it not obvious that I were playing along? Damn.

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http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/08/galaxy-marginal-seat-poll.html

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It isn't much good in Australia either. But that's not why I posted the link...

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ABC did a live stream last time and presumably will again. And they'll have Antony Green, the election geek's election geek.

As for following the campaign online, the best site is probably still Pollbludger. In terms of resources, the Green Guide is indispensable, the Tally Room has lots of poll-by-poll maps and stuff and for old elections, Adam Carr's archive is amazing.

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Essential Research sez ALP 51.