Sweden and Finland set to join NATO in May (user search)
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  Sweden and Finland set to join NATO in May (search mode)
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Author Topic: Sweden and Finland set to join NATO in May  (Read 31771 times)
ingemann
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« on: May 20, 2022, 01:23:47 PM »

One thing that does confuse me about this last-minute Turkish objection is: Why did not the USA and other key NATO countries do private discussions with all NATO members to get their support ahead of time before giving Sweden and Finland the green light to start their application process domestically?

Now Sweden and Finland are committed domestically to NATO it is a lot easier for Turkey to get their pound of flesh than if there were private discussions ahead of time to get Turkey to back this.  This entire affair seems like a very bad diplomatic strategy on the part of the USA.

Except Turkey is in a worse position now, Finland and Sweden have gotten security guarantees from USA, UK and several other countries. It means that Finland and Sweden can just outwait Erdogan, and Erdogan will find that his negotiation position is worse right now.
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ingemann
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« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2022, 05:55:02 PM »

One thing that does confuse me about this last-minute Turkish objection is: Why did not the USA and other key NATO countries do private discussions with all NATO members to get their support ahead of time before giving Sweden and Finland the green light to start their application process domestically?

Now Sweden and Finland are committed domestically to NATO it is a lot easier for Turkey to get their pound of flesh than if there were private discussions ahead of time to get Turkey to back this.  This entire affair seems like a very bad diplomatic strategy on the part of the USA.

Except Turkey is in a worse position now, Finland and Sweden have gotten security guarantees from USA, UK and several other countries. It means that Finland and Sweden can just outwait Erdogan, and Erdogan will find that his negotiation position is worse right now.

Perhaps I am missing something.  Are these guarantees bound by treaties?

Treaties like constitutions are glorified toilet paper, they only have the value a country put into it. A security guarantee is the same. Sweden and Finland were already under the EU security guarantee, and everyone expect USA to also intervene in case of a war. The reason NATO membership is important for the two countries, is to increase Finnish and Swedish military integration and make it harder for Russia to make the mistake to think that attacking them would not result in major war. The fact that F&S have decided to join NATO and everyone except the Anatolian goatf****r have accepted it, mean they can start integrating their militaries with neighboring NATO countries and the security guarantee simply makes it more clear to Russia that a war would have disaterous consequences.

As for Erdogan the 69-degree-chess grandmaster, who are running his economy into the ground and dependent on EU subsidies and loan, something the two NATO candidate countries can veto, he's likely gone in a year.
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ingemann
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« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2023, 04:59:28 AM »


The Greek and Armenians are. Then that’s said the Turkish military had a lot of problems in Syria, when they invaded the Kurdish controlled areas.
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ingemann
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« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2023, 01:35:42 PM »

The Greek and Armenians are. Then that’s said the Turkish military had a lot of problems in Syria, when they invaded the Kurdish controlled areas.

Since everybody is acting like they don't know what I meant, I'll clarify.

The U.S. is not scared of Turkey's military. Happy?

Maybe, all of you in Europe are terrified based on these responses lol.

Not really, I expect that the moment Turkey fought a peer or even a near peer, they would show a lot of problem and they would be worsen by Erdogan purges of the military. The fact that most of Turkey’s experience is fighting a asymmetric enemy and occupy hostile territory make it likely they would get a rude awakening, when people shoot back. We could see it in Syria, where Turkey took significant losses against the semi-conventional army of YPG, very similar to the problems Israel had with Hezbollah in the last invasion of Lebanon.
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ingemann
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2023, 06:19:02 PM »

There are just instances where "neutrality" is not really an option.[/b] Not when you have such a clear right vs. wrong situation.

We are talking about the guys who sat out WW2 and took Nazi cash. Neutrality *shouldn't* have been an option on a couple of occasions, but it's only now they're actually shifting their position - I do think that's at least somewhat noteworthy.

It made perfect sense to be neutral in under WW2 and the Cold War, what really have changed is that Switzerland have become an enclave a neutral enclave. What should lead to a rethinking of the geopolitical situation of Switzerland. The whole Nazi gold thing was the smart thing to do as it deincentivized Germany from invading Switzerland. But now what do the Swiss get out of their neutrality anymore, both morally but also practically?
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