MN and CO PrimR- PPP: Santorum leading by 2 in MN, Romney by 14 in CO in 1st day (user search)
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  MN and CO PrimR- PPP: Santorum leading by 2 in MN, Romney by 14 in CO in 1st day (search mode)
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Author Topic: MN and CO PrimR- PPP: Santorum leading by 2 in MN, Romney by 14 in CO in 1st day  (Read 5092 times)
argentarius
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 843
Ireland, Republic of


« on: February 05, 2012, 11:52:00 AM »

How well did the polls do in 2008?
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argentarius
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 843
Ireland, Republic of


« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2012, 01:22:33 PM »

Here's why it's a 4 way tie:

2008 Minnesota poll (University of Minnesota, only one I could find, released 5 days before):
McCain 41%
Huckabee 22%
Romney 17%
Paul 5%

Results:
Romney 41% (+24)
McCain 22% (-19)
Huckabee 20% (-2)
Paul 15% (+10)

Obviously we can't rely on Romney's and Paul's numbers so (like in Nevada), Gingrich's support is like McCain's support (which doesn't bode well for him), and Santorum's is like Huckabee's ( so he's definitely in with a shot). From this poll I can see Rick, Paul or Mitt winning, but it's really a 4-way race because of that big Gingrich poll a few weeks back. I think the most likely outcome is a sizeable win by Mitt.
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argentarius
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 843
Ireland, Republic of


« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2012, 01:55:40 PM »


New Hampshire 9%
Florida 13%
South Carolina 17%
Nevada 10%

You are a footnote. Just. Give. Up.




Hahaha, I love my haters. I can just imagine the bubbling anger you and so many others feel since Santorum not only won a contest but remains a player in this game. No doubt an esteemed prognosticator like yourself predicted that Santorum would be out of the race immediately after a disastrous showing in Iowa.

So if Paul wins Maine or somewhere is he now a major player?

No because he doesn't have a viable path to the nomination and you know it. Maine wouldn't set up future wins for Paul. Iowa made Santorum relevant elsewhere.
So relevant that he's come third twice and fourth twice.
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argentarius
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 843
Ireland, Republic of


« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2012, 02:18:27 PM »


New Hampshire 9%
Florida 13%
South Carolina 17%
Nevada 10%

You are a footnote. Just. Give. Up.




Hahaha, I love my haters. I can just imagine the bubbling anger you and so many others feel since Santorum not only won a contest but remains a player in this game. No doubt an esteemed prognosticator like yourself predicted that Santorum would be out of the race immediately after a disastrous showing in Iowa.

Have you ever considered that most people here don't feel bubbling anger that Santorum is in the race? Obviously my views are very different from Santorum's but I don't really care that he is still in the race. I suspect most people here feel the same way, with the exception of the Paul people, but I suspect that is mostly due to your behavior here.
I actually like that Santorum could take down Romney, or at least make this interesting.
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argentarius
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 843
Ireland, Republic of


« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2012, 04:17:38 PM »

The best thing about this poll: PPP didn't underestimate Romney in NV, so they should be accurate again.
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