Here's Romney's problem. That wonderful electoral outlook results in:
Obama: 283
Romney: 255
North Carolina. Iowa. The three west states. Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. These states are insanely obsessed with Barack Obama. The fact that Nevada has an unemployment rate of 14% and would be close in a poll between an incumbent President vs. a Republican with business experience in a year that would favor Romney baffles me. If Romney wins one of those western states, it's not enough. He would have to win either North Carolina, or win a combination of Iowa & Colorado, New Mexico & Colorado or Nevada & Colorado. The fact that the Democrats are holding their convention in North Carolina will make it harder to pull the state back to the GOP as well.
Now, most campaigns are close. 1980 was very close. 1988 was close. In late Summer, polls showed Bush at 48% and Dukakis at 46%. 2008 was close. Only towards the end, such as in 1988 and 2008 or the very end as seen in the final days of Campaign '80 does the victor begin to pull away. I could see a scenario where Romney pulls away to win a decisive victory in the electoral college.
I agree with everything you say except with NC. North Carolina was the last state to be called in 08, it was practically icing on the cake. They won by a fraction of a percent in '08 and that was the best they will ever do. If New Hampshire moves away (which w/ Romney is already possible if not probable) then I don't know how Obama can win. If everything holds steady (including Obama not dropping or marginal improvement) than this is what I see
If the bottom falls out:
If Romney falters or Obama improves considerably:
If Axe and Plouffe are geniuses and know something I don't
