Let's say hypothetically Obama's margin goes down a little bit from 08 because of the economy to a high 60 win in Hawaii. Would Lingle even be able to win enough cross-over supporters to win?
No. Let's say Obama wins the state 68-32. That would mean Lingle would need to run 18-19 points better than the GOP Presidential candidate. Given the more partisan nature of a Senate race and the fact Lingle left office with approvals in the low 40s, that seems virtually impossible. It's only been 1.5 years since her governorship ended and I don't think that is enough time for negative perceptions to have eased. After Hanabusa unseated Djou in a GOP wave year when Obama wasn't even on the ticket, there is nothing to suggest such a monumental upset is brewing. Maybe if the Dems nominate an extremely weak candidate, but I can't see that happening either.
Also to say that Baumgartner is "a million times" better than Rossi is a huge stretch, but I don't want to derail the subject of this thread.
Dont forget that it was the first time Hawaii ever sent an incumbent congressman packing
