The most average state

[Duke David]

As some of you might have noticed I inquired about the most "bellwetherous" US states; i. e. the states that voted most frequently for the candidate that would eventually become president.

The three most "successful" states in choosing the "right" candidate are:

• New Mexico (92,0%)
• Illinois (83,3%)
• Ohio (82,7%)

Whereas Illinois has turned from a bellwether state into a blue state, New Mexico and Ohio have still been swinging towards the overall winning party.
With only two "mistakes", the New Mexicans have been remarkably good at siding with the nationwide favorite. On the basis of popular vote, they even got it wrong only once, when they chose Ford over Carter in 1976.

My question is as follows:
Why are the New Mexicans so "average"?
I understand Ohio and Illinois, which lie somewhat in the middle of the contiguous states. But peripheral New Mexico? Its demographic structure is nowhere near representative.

Can anyone tell me why they always side with the successful candidate?

[Duke David]

New Mexico has a large population of Democratic Hispanics almost perfectly offset by conservative whites.

Oh, thank you. Finally an answer.

And what makes Ohio and Illinois bellwether states?

[Duke David]

New Mexico has a large population of Democratic Hispanics almost perfectly offset by conservative whites.

Oh, thank you. Finally an answer.

And what makes Ohio and Illinois bellwether states?

Illinois isn't.

Look at my opening post:

Illinois comes second among all bellwether states. I have to admit, though, that Illinois has rather become blue since 1992 than "bellwetherous".

[Duke David]

Illinois isn't.

Look at my opening post:

Illinois comes second among all bellwether states. I have to admit, though, that Illinois has rather become blue since 1992 than "bellwetherous".

Ill. Bo Peep has lost its sheep in 2 of the last 3 election.

Over the past century (1912-2008)

The best are:

I didn't speak of the last century.

I speak of all elections from 1789 through to 2008.

And on the basis of this span, New Mexico is the most bellwetherous state of all.
And I just want to know why.

[Duke David]

I disagree with your definition.

I couldn't care less. There's no reason why half of the election results should be disregarded.

But the reason is because New Mexico wasn't a State until 1912, so didn't have to only miss twice over the previous century as well, or have elections that remote holding its score down.

I hope you've noticed that I used percentages as calculation base.