Who will the next Republican President be?

[cavalcade]

Romney 2012 and Perry 2012 are somewhat likely.  If Romney loses, primary or general, he is done.  If Perry loses general, he is done.  If Perry loses primary and Romney loses general, Perry has a small chance in 2016.

No mention of Huckabee 2016?  Isn't he the frontrunner for the nomination if Obama gets re-elected?

Huntsman hasn't impressed, but a 2016 primary wouldn't have Romney so he'd be the favorite in NH.  He'd also probably be the best known moderate in a field that could include Huckabee, Perry, Rubio, and Thune.

Christie would have to win re-election (unlikely, right?) or choose not to run (which could make him look weak).

I don't see what Rubio's appeal is other than he is a conservative minority, and that hasn't been enough for Cain.  If he does become President, it'll probably be after being VP.

Thune is a possibility.

If Scott Brown is re-elected to the Senate in Massachusetts in a general election year when the Democratic candidate wins the Presidency, and then wins a Republican presidential primary nomination four years later, he will go down in history as the greatest politician of all time.

Daniels deserves to be mentioned, but I have no idea if he would even do it.

Then there is the group of McDonnell/Cantor/people elected in 2010, 2012, or even later that we don't know about yet.


In all I'd say, roughly:

Romney 25% chance of being next R President
Perry 20%
Huckabee 15%
Huntsman 8%
Christie 7%
Rubio 5%
Thune 5%
Field/None 15%