Another new state poll (Nevada)... (user search)
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  Another new state poll (Nevada)... (search mode)
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Author Topic: Another new state poll (Nevada)...  (Read 3457 times)
freedomburns
FreedomBurns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,237


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -8.70

« on: July 23, 2004, 11:29:34 PM »

Nevada will definitely go for the Dems this time.  I guarantee it.  I predicted this weeks ago, and I will tell you why.

Nevada's population has grown dramatically in the past four years.  Many of these are disaffected Californians.  California tends to be strongly Democratic.  Some of these folks may have moved away because they were unhappy living in such a liberal state.  Still, the majority of the folks moving to Nevada are going to be Dems.

Nevada has the LOWEST percentage of registered voters of any state in the nation.  AZ and NV both had 41% registered in 2000.  Of those, only 70% voted in 2000.  This equates to the thrid lowest turnout in the continental US of the voting age population within a state, behind AZ and GA.  NV is therefore some of the most fertile ground in the country for registering voters.

There are many progressive issues on the NV ballot that will motivate the liberal electorate to go to the polls this year.  These include initiatives on business taxes, a minimum wage and the LEGALIZATION of marijuana (which I predict will pass).

There is a new national activist group called driving votes that has already had great success in Nevada.  Driving Votes was organized to take activists on road trips from states that are more or less guaranteed to go for Kerry to swing states to educate and register voters.  Driving Votes has been endorsed by Michael Moore and tens of thousands of people have visited their website in the past few weeks to plan trips.  Drivingvotes can be reached at www.drivingvotes.org for all interested.  Check Yahoo groups for your local group.

I am currently aware of a group of about 50 that left the Bay Area for a four day weekend in Vegas accompanied by a reporter from the San Francisco Chronicle who has "embedded" himself with them to do a big story on their efforts.  The reports from the people who have alreay made trips are extremely encouraging.  Las Vegas, "Sin City", is one of the most liberally minded cities in the US and it should not surprise that they have received overwhelming support there.

This is happening all over the country, though, and it is a strong argument for why Kerry may top 330 EV this year.  This poll is confirming my expectations.
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freedomburns
FreedomBurns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,237


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -8.70

« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2004, 11:44:33 PM »

People who are not registered to vote are irrelevant to a poll as they cannot vote in the only poll that matters.  To survey them is a waste of time and money.

Not entirely correct if they register between the time of the poll and the last date that voters are allowed to register for the coming election.  In Nevada anyone who is a U.S. citizen, 18 years of age or older on or before the date of the election, and is not in prison or on parole for a felony conviction may register to vote.  The deadline to register is 15 days before the election, or October 18, 2004.  

I must add the caveat that previously unregistered voters are rarely a  factor in Presidential elections, but this election may hold a few surprises.
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freedomburns
FreedomBurns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,237


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -8.70

« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2004, 12:00:04 AM »

Quote
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I did not know that they updated information monthly.  Thanks for filling me in.

It is possilbe then, if they did not over sample liberal Las Vegas (the rest of the state including Reno/Carson City is MUCH more conservative) that this poll accurately reflects a shift toward Kerry over the past month.  The last available poll that I have seen anywhere was taken 6 weeks ago.  

It sounds like they did over sample Las Vegas by about 10% though.  Wouldn't this only reflect a 10% inaccuracy in the data?  10% is not very significant statistically.  It would still show Kerry up by about 3-4%.  That's probably within the MOE, but my point still stands (less strongly).  Kerry is likely to take this state and seems to be gaining ground.
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freedomburns
FreedomBurns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,237


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -8.70

« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2004, 12:35:56 AM »

Worthy analysis Tredick, but still open to interpretation.

JohnFord, if you bothered to read my post and retain it, you would remember that I twice mentioned that there would be a lot of conservatives moving from CA to NV to get away from CA.  I still stand by the statement that the majority of these ex-CA voters are Dems.  

The increase in registered Republicans likely came from the other states that border NV, like Utah (!), AZ and Idaho (!), and other central mountain state in the vicinity.  Just because your friends that moved away are all Republican does not mean much.
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freedomburns
FreedomBurns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,237


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -8.70

« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2004, 01:19:46 AM »
« Edited: July 24, 2004, 01:53:39 AM by FreedomBurns »

I think you got me with that article.  I concede the point.  Still,  that article was two years old.  Give me time, I'll see if I can find new data to uphold the argument.  (Likely that I won't)

I did say:
Nevada's population has grown dramatically in the past four years.  Many of these are disaffected Californians.  California tends to be strongly Democratic.  Some of these folks may have moved away because they were unhappy living in such a liberal state.  

And then there is this, just in from the Las Vegas Review-Journal:

"...Congressional District 3 [where the driving votes folks, ~40 from Bay Area and ~100 from around the state, are headed] in Nevada is close as well.  Recent voter registration numbers show Democrats have closed the gap to just a 55-voter edge for Republicans out of 300,000-plus voters. Earlier this year the GOP had a 2,700-voter edge. "
 
 
55 voters!  Can you handle that?  Between registering voters and doing their voter outreach/issue identification, the work DV is doing this weekend is going to have a real impact.  And people are taking notice.  They do have a reporter with them from the SF Chronicle.  I will post the article when it gets printed.

freedomburns (not buns weisenheimer!)

lol

P.S.
(Psst, you missed an "r" in my handle.)

I swear to goddess that misspelling your name was accidental.  I humbly and sincerely apologize Tredrick.

(It did come out kind of funny though.  Does it imply well-endowed?)

Wink
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freedomburns
FreedomBurns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,237


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -8.70

« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2004, 07:15:07 PM »

In my math (perhaps a little old fashioned), the extrapolation of trends favors Bush.

How can you claim yours is a valid position when you see the polls and how they are trending this year?  See below:

freedomburns-

He's certainly gaining ground given that of the 2 certainly reliable polls from the state: the first showed him down 11 and the second, taken a couple of months later, showed him down 1.

The latest poll, even with possible oversampling of southern Nevada, shows a 4-5% shift to Kerry in the past six week.  Your analysis is flawed. (IMHO)

freedomburns
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freedomburns
FreedomBurns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,237


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -8.70

« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2004, 12:47:15 AM »


Third, for a more detailed explantion of my analysis of the election, see my post in the 2004 User Predictions thread, page 157 on this board.

I read your postings in the user predictions.  Dang Carl, how did you get so knowledgeable about this stuff?  I am impressed.

A few questions:
(1) What is "nomination data"?

(2) I could do historical research, and I'm sure pull just as many statistics out that fit my picture of what I would like for the result.  I can't be sure that you are not cherry picking your data.  Can you be sure that you are not wearing rose colored glasses, so to speak?

For instance, no Democratic candidate in recent history has polled as high as Kerry is at this point in a Presidential campaign.  For a challenger to be going into the convention in a virtual tie is unprecedented in modern times.  Given that, he is almost guaranteed to win.  

Some here seem so confident in their predictions.  Maybe that is with good reason.  Perhaps you have access to better data.  I admit that I am relatively new to statistical analysis and number crunching of polls, but I do find it VERY interesting.

I can't wait to see the final result, and I hope people that are wrong will humbly abase themselves here on the forum, apologize for their partisan logic, and then post a picture of themselves eating crow. (Not a real one please, I'm a vegetarian)

I can't say that your analysis is flawed.  You have given this too much thought, and I am unable to refute your logic.  But you are just one person.  Do you have reason to be so confident in your analysis?  Where is your data coming from?  Suspect partisan sources like Public Opinion Strategies?

The Republicans have gained in the voter rolls.  But everything moves in cycles and that cycle is ending soon.  People are getting pretty fed up with how dumb Bush is (no offense intended).  Even the people who are more powerful than the President are getting fed up with how lamely he carries off their bidding.  They may let Kerry get elected if Bush can't pull his act together.

I wasn't planning on getting a full membership to PollingReports.  I can just wait until people post their data, with detailed analysis, on this site a few hours later.  But I am starting to think that I might want to crunch their numbers myself.  And, that is the kind of site that I like to support.

freedomburns
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freedomburns
FreedomBurns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,237


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -8.70

« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2004, 11:36:14 PM »

Right, thanks guys.  Now we have two polls from the same source to compare.

In the March Mason-Dixon poll stats:
Bush 49%
Kerry 38%
Nader 4%
Undecided 9%

In the July poll:
Bush 46%
Kerry 43%
Nader 4%
Undeciced 7%

So, in the past three months Kerry has taken 3% from Bush and 2% of the undecideds in NV, despite Bush spending much money here.  There are three months to go.  If the trend continues, Kerry will win it.  The July poll shows the independents very concerned with the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste dump plan that Bush flip-flopped on.  So the independents will likely break for Kerry.  Also, there is some hope (wishful?) that when people see how close it will be, and are not just answering a pollster, they won't actually vote for a third party candidate (Nader takes more from Kerry).  

The Dems say that they are "ecstatic" with the poll, and for good reason.  In three months they have made huge headway.  They still have their work cut out for them.  The state will not be a cakewalk.  

I probably shouldn't "guarantee" it for Kerry, but it sure looks good to me.

I don't have access to the favorability ratings for the July poll for comparison, but in March it was:

Bush 48% favorable, 37% unfavorable, 15% neutral
Kerry 35% favorable, 36% unfavorable, 27% neutral

If I had access the favorability ratings for the July poll it would help to make a prediction...
I suspect that Bush's unfavorable percentage will have gone up, but I'd like to know how much.

freedomburns
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freedomburns
FreedomBurns
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,237


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -8.70

« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2004, 02:46:26 AM »

Here is the article I promised:

From today's San Francisco Chronicle (Sunday, July 25, 2004):

'Californians road-tripping to register Nevada voters'
'Home thought safe for Kerry, so focus is on swing states'

Las Vegas -- His shirt soaked with sweat after 21/2 hours of walking door-to-door in the 107-degree morning heat of Las Vegas, Santa Clara construction worker Dan Yoshida put down his clipboard and counted how many Nevadans he had registered to vote.
Three.
He had caravanned 10 hours with 24 other Bay Area residents to this most unsexy suburban corner of northwest Vegas to offer help in a "swing" state where polls say the presidential election is too close to call. For three voters? And yet he was smiling.
Polls are giving Democratic Sen. John Kerry a comfortable lead over President Bush in California, so a growing number of the Bay Area's left-of- center types feel there's no point staying home and preaching to the converted.
Their solution: Hook up with one of a host of new organizations, like last weekend's organizer, DrivingVotes.org, that are coordinating trips to places like Nevada, where their efforts are needed more; Bush beat Democrat Al Gore in Nevada by a shade under 21,000 votes in 2000.
Nevada's prize is five electoral votes, which could be the election's difference, as the mantra goes in the 17 states where the vote is too close to tally on either campaign's tote board.
Tilting that margin toward Kerry is what is inspiring California road- trippers like Yoshida. He was one of 35 Californians, including nine from Southern California, who packed into vans Friday for a 72-hour roadie, many splitting the $68-a-night accommodations at the Howard Johnson by the airport, far from the Vegas strip.
"I was tired of sitting around with my friends saying, 'We're pissed off, but what are we going to do about it?' " said Yoshida, who just finished a 4 1/2-year hitch in the Marines. "This got me off my butt. Yeah, this was definitely worth it. It makes you feel like you're doing something."
Coordinated separately by Bay Area pro-Kerry groups and national progressive outfits like America Coming Together, Swing the State and the League of Independent Voters, a growing number of Californians are finding ways to turn out like-minded voters outside their home state. Most are under 35 and heretofore politically disengaged, and they find electoral politics loathsome.
Mobilizing large force
Yet other than New Yorkers headed to the Midwest, no state is exporting more help to swing states than California, said Adrienne Maree Brown, program director of the League of Young Voters, which is encouraging such road trips to register voters.
"California is surrounded by swing states," said Brown, co-editor of the league's inspiration, the how-to book, "How to Get Stupid White Men Out of Office: The Anti-Politics, Un-boring Guide to Power."
"It's like progressive people have finally gotten the message that they have to lose those elitist attitudes that are there on the coasts," Brown said. "A lot of people talk about, 'We got to help the people rise up,' but they forget the 'people' part of it. There's progressive people in Akron, Ohio. Now people are trying to connect with them."
"Everybody says swing states are where the action is," said Carol Butler, an El Cerrito resident who is coordinating swing state expeditions for Bay Area volunteers for Kerry. The plan is to visit Nevada regularly until November, including a fall pitch to college students for another road trip to Las Vegas.
"John Kerry is going to win California whether we stay here and work for him or not," Butler said.
Not so fast, said Bush campaign spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt, who said there are 75,000 volunteers for Bush in California. Campaign officials stress that Bush hasn't written off the state and confirm that he plans to visit Southern California in mid-August.
Republican National Committee spokesman Yier Shi said he knew of no similar effort to export conservative help from red to swing states. "We have enough volunteers in the swing states," he said.
Quipped California Republican Party spokeswoman Karen Hanretty: "Maybe Republicans (from California) are smart enough not to walk around Las Vegas in 100-degree heat."
Hanretty dismissed the border-crossing effort as the work of "the more liberal voters from the Bay Area who are going to support Kerry because he's not the other candidate. But I don't see a lot of enthusiasm for Kerry himself. "
Indeed, the Vegas road-trippers didn't encounter a lot of Kerry love from Nevadans. A poster inside the America Coming Together offices where the California volunteers gathered asked, "Why the hell did you come all the way to Nevada?" Underneath, one respondent wrote, "I'm angry." They're hearing the same response on the street.
"People are mostly saying, 'Get rid of Bush,' " said Seiji Carpenter, a San Francisco Mission District resident, as he snagged a handful of registrations outside a Food 4 Less.
Getting results
Whatever the motivator, Kerry's Nevada operatives and other progressive leaders there have appreciated the help. Of the 47 volunteers trying to identify and register sympathetic voters Saturday in Vegas, more than two- thirds were from California. They helped register 162 new voters and made face- to-face contact with 341 others -- a boon in a region where the party registration is as close as the polls.
"The response from California has been amazing," said Anna Franker, field director for the Nevada chapter of America Coming Together, a year-old organization formed to register and turn out progressive voters. "If each person who comes out has five conversations with voters, then over the next few months, that's what's going to swing the election."
Franker was a bit overenthusiastic in her Saturday morning pep talk to volunteers, saying, "If you're talking to someone who's a Bush supporter, don't register them. The Bush people will take care of them." An America Coming Together spokesman quickly corrected her, saying they would register everyone, regardless of party affiliation.
For Bay Area road-trippers, the side benefit of these Nevada jaunts -- besides the after-campaigning joys of the Strip -- has been an education in talking to voters outside the San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley progressive bubble. They ran into the fiercely independent "Nevaditude" of people like 68- year-old Mark Connor, who answered the door shirtless and told Yoshida, "I don't think either of them is worth my damn vote."
As the Californians walked through Connor's working-class neighborhood Saturday, where 1,200-foot, 3-bedroom homes were selling for $172,500 and front-yard auto repair was not uncommon, some of the Californians were surprised at people's concerns.
"I thought people were going to be upset about the war, but they were more concerned about health care and housing," said James Moed, a 29-year-old San Franciscan. "This has been an eye-opening experience."
E-mail Joe Garofoli at jgarofoli@sfchronicle.com.

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