NY-09, Special Election Thread

[NY Jew]

anyone who truly wants to know what happened here read the front page article (and the continuation)
http://www.hamodia.com/digitaledition.cfm?docid=43796e430bdd43d285e7496f55c4cf98

[NY Jew]

Turner will win this race because of Weprin's same gender "marriage" vote/speech

Ballsy early call made good.

I made this call earlier

my first prediction on this forum Weprin will lose this race mostly because of his redefinition of marriage support.

[NY Jew]

Opps, voters decided otherwise.

Certainly that does not matter. Johnnylongtorso said otherwise, and he must be right.

Eric Ulrich has taken himself out of consideration for the Republican nomination. Sorry, krazen, your dreams of picking up this seat are slipping through your fingers.

Ulrich would have never gotten such a high Orthodox support (he voted for a gay marriage (to us at least David greenfeld was the only won to vote against it) like bill in the city Council)

whether he would have done good enough in key areas to win is impossible to gage would he have done better then Turner in Catholic neighborhoods? would he have gotten enough Orthodox support to win? would Ruben Diaz still support him? would NOM have gotten involved in this race if he was the candidate? (NOM got involved because many Orthodox Jews asked them to come in to help), could he have successfully made Isreal an issue?

Until I saw Turner got the nod I was afraid the Republicans would follow their normal routine of putting up a candidate that couldn't win (some of those candidates that were suggested couldn't win an election for town idiot) (ignoring all but their base (and this means registration and leadership wise))

[NY Jew]

NY Jew, according to the newspaper you just cited Marriage likely wasn't a huge decider in this race. Only 29% said that it was very important and that would appear to be the same % of traditionally Republican voting Orthodox Jews and devout Catholics that are in this district.

Orthodox Jews are only Republican based on a few issues (though the democrats keep expanding this number) and most Orthodox Jews never would have abandoned Weprin if not for this vote (watch when the special election ED by ED numbers come out for the 27 AD and compare Weprin and Simanowitz's numbers and you'll see that many voted for the democrat in 1 race and the Republican in the other)
here's the results for the whole district (many of the traditional republican areas aren't in the 9th CD)
Simanowitz (D) 6,448 76%-DeSena (R) 2,032 24% (this district includes McCains best areas in Queens proper (and I'm sure that you were seeing numbers here like 80% for Simanowitz and 80% for Turner) (not including the Rockways))


in regards to the Catholics many Hispanics here and therefore would be changed votes.

don't confuse very important with 1 issue voters.

[NY Jew]

Also, isn't "Jewry" a term that shouldn't be used? I saw that at the top and the only couple of times I've seen that were word it was used in kind of a derogatory way.

depends what follows or precedes it (in other words it's neutral)

[NY Jew]

http://www.cityhallnews.com/2011/09/heard-around-town-sept-14-2011/

[NY Jew]

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2093186,00.html

"In some places, government has moved ahead while the nation debates. New York in July became the sixth state, along with the District of Columbia, to legalize same-sex marriage. Still, the issue played a part in the special election Tuesday to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y. Democrat David Weprin's support for gay marriage cost him support among the district's Orthodox Jews, and he lost to Republican Bob Turner.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,2093186,00.html#ixzz1XxypQGek
"

[NY Jew]

I think a lot of it was about Obama's stand on Israel and same sex marriage, but not all of it.  Queens was not an Orthodox stronghold.  Some of it is the economy.

There is another problem.  Jews have traditionally supported Democratic candidates and supported Obama in the last election.  All D presidential nominees since 1928 have gotten at least a plurality of the Jewish vote.  Except for Carter in 1980, all got more than 60%.  http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/jewvote.html

This election is an indication that Obama might be below the 60% range, possibly below the 50% mark.  That should trouble any Obama supporter, especially if you look at the states with a fairly large Jewish population.

And Lief, thank you for helping drive Jewish voters away from Obama.

I haven't really read this thread (because this) but has this disgusting picture been posted yet?



So glad that we have another congressman that is as loyal to an anti-democratic apartheid state as he is to the country he will swear to protect.

Central Queens (Kew Garden Hill, Kew Gardens, Forrest Hills) has thousands of Orthodox votes.

[NY Jew]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9T7UfohbEc

[NY Jew]

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/poll-same-sex-marriage-played-role-ny-city-congressional-upset

[NY Jew]

http://biggovernment.com/jdunetz/2011/09/14/what-the-ny-9-contest-teaches-us-and-doesnt-about-the-jewish-vote/

[NY Jew]

Bob Turner is not Jewish.

That makes his pandering even more disgusting.

Why is that? He's reaching out to his potential (now actual) constituents. Is that wrong

Excuse me, I thought his constituents were Americans.

Oh my stars, getting a case of the vapors?  Had their been a Greek flag in Astoria, an Irish in Rockaway Beach or an Italian one in Howard Beach no one would say anything.  

Many constituent hold dual citizenship of a bunch of different nations.  It is just that Star of David that makes some people see red.

I addressed your point a page or two before.

I guess if Mike Michaud gave a victory speech having a French flag next to him or Raul Grijalva with a Mexican one, Republicans would be totally OK with that.

Um, yeah. The people who don't like France or Mexicans would piss and moan. I doubt they would get upset at Cuban emigre Republicans waving the old flag around.  Partisan politics tends  to turn people into hypocritical jackoffs.

OMG, Enemy agent!

I agree with that and so do many Jews who voted for Turner.

[NY Jew]

http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2011/09/14/behind-bob-turners-win-jewish-voters-opposed-to-gay-marriage/

[NY Jew]

What a thread.

since I'm very stupid as I was told here so many times I have a stupid question

If liberals who are much smarter then conservatives because there so open-minded why wouldn't they want to see what people who disagree with them have to say

[NY Jew]

notice the areas of Forrest Hills that Turner won are Heavily Orthodox (German, Modern and most importantly Bucharian)

[NY Jew]

What a thread.

since I'm very stupid as I was told here so many times I have a stupid question

If liberals who are much smarter then conservatives because there so open-minded why wouldn't they want to see what people who disagree with them have to say

I don't mind reading things from people I disagree with. That's why I enjoy reading posts from Torie, Sam Spade, Inks, etc.

What I don't enjoy reading is mindless drivel that contributes nothing to the forum. That's what your posts are.

how about the fact that I was the only one to predict that Marriage redefinition would be a major player in this race which you would have to be a complete idiot to miss at this point.(why do I feel I might have stumbled on to something here)

[NY Jew]

From the below, you can see just how tight a correlation there was between the McCain vote and the Turner vote. It appears to have been a generalized swing (at least among whites), rather than something special to Orthodox Jews.  If anything, at least based on the coloration, the swing appears to have been higher among Catholics. That McCain area in the NW corner of the CD is Catholic.

[/quote

except Orthodox Jews aren't strait Republicans we're a swing vote (though the democrats are looking to end this) that breaks at around 70% in most elections.

leave aside the issue and Orthodox Jews vote the opposite% for Weprin

[NY Jew]

Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.

with out seeing the exact numbers (but based on the info I have, certain % and of reports of very High Orthodox and Russian Turnout) I would either way Weprin wins but I think it would be a lot closer in the case of Weprin still voting for marriage but a friendlily environment.
you can see in the maps that Rego Park and Forrest Hills had many red areas in this race and not in 2008 and that was due mostly to Bucharian Jews showing up because of the marriage vote (this is also assuming he didn't have any other issues gay parades, gay speeches (if you know anything about this race you'll know exactly what I'm talking about) ext.).  In Kew Garden Hills, Forrest Hills, Flatbush I heard reports of very high turnouts.
considering that this district had a low overall turnout It's clear what won this race.

The thing about Obama was very important because that was spread across the whole district (though concentrated in White catholic neighborhoods) so it made the protest vote against marriage redefinition possible.  To see how much Obama's losing the non Orthodox Jewish vote I would have to wait for till I get more precise info.

I repeat for all the people who are to dense to figure it out many Orthodox Jews routinely vote democrat in one race and Republican in another in the same year at 75%+ rates. Weprin would have gotten a lot of orthodox votes if not for the marriage vote which is the whole reason he was picked because the democratic leadership in Queens underestimated the fact that Jews would not only reject one of their own but one who funded more Orthodox organizations then any other politician on any level of government .  He tried to run in the Orthodox Jewish community on that record but he couldn't because of the gay issues. losing the highest voting demographic (it would have been  if there would have been a Orthodox Jew running as a Orthodox Jew in this district) from 70%+ in your camp to 70%+ (wont know the more exact estimates for a while)  in your opponents camp would have more then closed the gap.

[NY Jew]

Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.

Weprin would have been sworn in today.

The correct answer is that Weprin would have narrowly lost if he had voted against gay marriage. If Obama's approval ratings were 10 points higher, Weprin would have been sworn in today regardless of his vote on gay marriage.

in addition to what I said before the demographic that hates Obama (Orthodox Jews) the most in this district would have voted for weprin if not for the marriage

[NY Jew]

in addition to all the people who voted based on marriage almost all the Orthodox media (in general the Orthodox media never asks hard ball questions) was super against Weprin because of marriage (bashing him on everything much more then they normally would because of that vote), all Turner's endorsers (rabbis, politicians, and other leaders )endorsersed him based on marriage.

[NY Jew]

PS Iv'e also heard from very reliable sources (notice this is plural) and it was quisy reported on in the daily news.
That Koch and turner made a secret deal in addition to the M,M and SS that Turner would not use marriage redefinition in this election (unlike what he did last time in the Orthodox communities (though many people last time didn't know who he was because he was running against Weiner)).  If Koch made that deal because he was afraid that this would become a referendum on gay marriage and as we know this district is against it (which would serve him right because now he's a pariah in gay circles more then ever before)

[NY Jew]

in the rest of far Rockway outside of the 9th CD which overlaps with the 23 Assembly district (many of it Orthodox) went  3178 to 491 in favor of Philip Goldfeder the democrat (and there was a last minute marriage issue regarding Goldfeder )

If anyone thinks that Orthodox Jews will not vote for a democrat the same area went 5616-3541 for Obama

the 2 most Orthodox EDs combined in this area went 1039-96 McCain

I think this proves that Orthodox Jews this year would still vote democrat

[NY Jew]

Yes, NY Jew, there does appear to have been an especially strong swing in Rego Park to Turner (I noticed that before and should have mentioned it, but was pressed for time when I posted, and forgot), along with the Catholic areas in the NW corner (Middletown), where you see a lot more red than in 2008. I wonder why Rego Park voted for Obama but not Welprin, when the rest of the Orthodox areas also voted for McCain. I suspect in white areas there was a swing everywhere (including upper middle class fairly Jewish more secular Forest Hills), it was just a matter of degree.  I don't know about the Hispanic precincts, as to whether they swung, or just didn't vote much. They still went for Welprin.

The white Catholic areas of Brooklyn of course swung massively to Turner. They went for McCain, but this time by much larger margins.

Bucharians didn't vote in that election (relativity new to the country and has no political experience ) this election for some reason there got involved in the race (I wonder if it has to due with that thing that I keep getting made fun of over) massive registering campaign there from what I heard.

[NY Jew]

here's the amount Turner (not Turner's overall vote) won over Weprin in the combined majority Orthodox EDs by Assembly seat (based on these results I don't see how Weprin wouldn't have won if there was no gay issues (I gave up after these ADs because it's clear to me that this was enough even with mild Turnout in other Jewish areas))
44 607 votes
45 1277 votes
48 604 votes

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

[NY Jew]

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

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Yup, no slavering hatred and sin here, just the shining love of God. Yessirree.

when they decide to do teshuva we'll talk right now there in a mereda against HKB.
(it wasn't just the marriage that lost him votes it was also his speech and parade marches)
and just to let you know if this district is gerrymandered you will do to the democratic party what Coollidge did to the Republican party (which crystallized under that Roosevelt yemach shemo)