PA: Magellan Strategies: Obama defeats Romney by 10, Perry by 15 in PA

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Appears to be on par with 2008.  Obama won PA by about 11 percentage points.  As Pennsylvania goes down the road of fools gold for the GOP in another election this could push the conservatives to change the state to allocate their electoral votes by congressional district.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Well if you disagree posting some useful commentary would be preferred.  Although you would be hard pressed to go against anything I stated.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Well if you disagree posting some useful commentary would be preferred.  Although you would be hard pressed to go against anything I stated.

There's no way Obama is on level with how he performed in 2008 in Pennsylvania. Polling has consistently shown Obama polling terrible in Pennsylvania with approval ratings below the national average. I think he's still favored to win this state, but no way will he win it by more than 10 points, especially if Romney is the nominee.

At this point we know the margins of zero states.  That is how it will be until hours after the polls close.  Obama doesn't need to win Pennsylvania by 11 points.  Do you honestly think Pennsylvania is going to be a lean R state in 2012?

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Well if you disagree posting some useful commentary would be preferred.  Although you would be hard pressed to go against anything I stated.

There's no way Obama is on level with how he performed in 2008 in Pennsylvania. Polling has consistently shown Obama polling terrible in Pennsylvania with approval ratings below the national average. I think he's still favored to win this state, but no way will he win it by more than 10 points, especially if Romney is the nominee.

At this point we know the margins of zero states.  That is how it will be until hours after the polls close.  Obama doesn't need to win Pennsylvania by 11 points.  Do you honestly think Pennsylvania is going to be a lean R state in 2012?

I think Pennsylvania will be a toss-up, as does everyone else (That is, unless the GOP nominates a joke). This poll is an obvious outlier - every other Pennsylvania poll shows Obama with miserable approvals and either barely beating Republicans or barely trailing, with a lot of undecideds. He also has bad approvals. I highly doubt Obama is really at 50% right now against Romney or Perry.

Yes Pennsylvania is called a toss-up.  Then again it was also a toss-up in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008. 

I wonder how many elections in a row a state needs to go one way before it is classified as a state than has a partisan lean