This simply doesn’t square with the current picture we have from the early vote. Laxalt could still win, but it would probably be by a narrow margin, nowhere near 5%. Really wish we could see the crosstabs on this.
I’m not trying to be a dick, but what the hell are you talking about?
If Laxalt wins indies by the 8-10 most polling shows him doing, and if he wins slightly more Ds than she does Rs, a +4-5 result isn’t at all out of the question
The smallest lead he has had among indies was in the Suffolk poll at +5
The reason why Laxalt was ahead in Emerson, insider adv, D4p, etc is simple- it’s the same story in every poll
It’s not because dem turnout is low, it’s because indies are breaking his way
We will know more Nevada SOS publishes the final turnout numbers by party but it is pretty obvious Republicans did not win independents by 10 points, they probably broke even or lost them slightly.
I think we are starting to see the effects of automatic voter registration in NV, young left leaning voters are automatically registered as non partisan unless they specify otherwise, this is making to the "other" pool in Nevada move to the left.
