Early Voting thread.

[Minnesota Mike]

So maybe, just maybe Laxalt & Lombardo will stop this NV Statewide loss curse for Republicans. They haven't won a Statewide Race since 2014.

The current SOS is a Republican.

[Minnesota Mike]

Lombardo I am 100% sure about. There is no path for Sisolak. I am pretty much set on Laxalt as well unless we see some huge wave of Mail randomly.

If you are 100% sure about any race you don't understand how probabilities work.

[Minnesota Mike]

Ralston keeps using the arbitrary day of today as the definitive "end of early vote" which continues to baffle me. Yes, that may have been the case in 2018, but we are still getting mail updates (and no more in person updates) after tonight.

Dems gained 4K in mail in the last update, Reps gained 2.5K in in-person. Say that happens again tonight, Clark firewall will jump another 1.5K. That's it for in person though.

Then we have Sat night, Sun night, and Mon night mail updates that could net Dems at least another 10-15K for their firewall. (plus anything that arrives after that)

I get that he's used to the end of "in person early voting" being the "end of the early vote" in general, but it's not this year, so I don't get why he's using that as a marker.

As you've already mentioned, it's not even like mail voting ends on Election Day: any ballot postmarked by Election Day and received by CoB on Saturday, 11/12 will also be counted. In a universal mail balloting system, you'd think nobody prognosticating in NV ever met procrastinating young people and/or Latinos & Asians before!

As an old white guy I'm glad somebody else said it

[Minnesota Mike]

This is going well beyond bad for Democrats in Florida
https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1588629634828341248

Certainly the Governors Race will be called at Poll Closing (8pm ET).

No doubt Democrats are getting absolutely crushed in Florida but in the larger scheme of things the margin does not really matter at least on a statewide or Federal level.  If the electorate is R+1 or R+10 Republicans will win the Gov, Sen, and 20 of 28 House seats. We have all known this since the redistricting maps passed this spring.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1589111493706276864

That's what the doctor ordered.

[Minnesota Mike]

Does Nevada have drop boxes? If not with no mail on Sunday tomorrow will probably be a slow day.

[Minnesota Mike]

Mark this post.

I'll eat one of every Arby's menu item if either Sisolak or Cortez-Masto hang on.

You say that like it's a bad thing. I could go for an Arby's roast beef and curly fries right now.

[Minnesota Mike]

Are we getting NV early vote today?

No mail, no in person voting. If we get anything it probably won't be much.

[Minnesota Mike]

OR update.

Dem- 430,234 (41.3%)
Rep- 344,035 (33.1%)
Other- 266,377 (25.6%)
Total- 1,040,646

https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/statistics/G22-Daily-Ballot-Returns.pdf

Turnout down from same point in 2018. Dems trailing their 9% voter registration edge but only by about a point, I think they will take it.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/markniesse/status/1593723913187516417

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1594860504710791172

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1595457665915932673