CA congressional primary results by party in competitive seats.

[Minnesota Mike]

The top 2 primary system has its flaws but it does give us the best "poll" we a likely to get in a lot of these districts. Historically margins tend to move a little bit left in November overall but it does vary by district. With almost all the vote in here is the party vote and my rankings for the competitive seats. Any race not listed I think will be safe for the obvious party. I did move CA-40 and CA-45 to Safe R from likely R due to poor Democratic primary results.

CA-09: Dem +2.7%, Lean D
CA-13: Rep +3.7%, Tossup
CA-22: Rep +9.3%. Lean R
CA-27: Rep +0.7%, Lean D
CA-41: Rep+6.7%, Likely R
CA-47: Dem+3.4%, Likely D
CA-49: Dem +2.9%, Lean D

Overall I think we will have a small swing to the left (why I have CA 27 lean D) with bigger swings in the northern CA Hispanic heavy districts. Overall pretty much status quo, Democrats lost a safe district in redistricting but may be able to gain it back if they can flip CA-27 and hold their other current seats. Probably not good enough since if they want any chance to hold the House they needed to gain seats in CA.

[Minnesota Mike]

Just looking back on the House CA results since they went to Top 2 in 2012 and I could not find a single case of Democrats getting the most votes in the primary and then going on to lose the General.  Republicans have won 61 congressional elections (regular, full term) since 2012 and in all 61 the total Republican vote in the primary was greater than the Democratic vote. Past performance does not guarantee future results yada yada yada but that's a good sign for Dems in CA-09, CA-47, and CA-49.