2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Minnesota Mike]

Trone barely does his job as a Congressman anyway, so I'm not sure why he feels the need to pump so much of his personal fortune into keeping his seat.

Can't wait until Foldi shows him the door.

Isn't Parrott the favorite for the GOP nomination? Not sure a reporter for the Free Beacon who looks like he is 17 is that big of a threat in a Biden+10 district.

[Minnesota Mike]

Trone barely does his job as a Congressman anyway, so I'm not sure why he feels the need to pump so much of his personal fortune into keeping his seat.

Can't wait until Foldi shows him the door.

Isn't Parrott the favorite for the GOP nomination? Not sure a reporter for the Free Beacon who looks like he is 17 is that big of a threat in a Biden+10 district.

Foldi has been endorsed by Hogan and McCarthy.

Admittedly, I'm biased since I'm friends with Foldi and volunteering on his campaign. But he is working the district extremely hard while Parrott is barely campaigning. I think Foldi's youthfulness will prove to be a good contrast to Trone in the general.

You would know the Republican race better than I. I was going off fundraising and 538 having Parrott being the likely GE candidate. Still looks like a likely D race to me though.

[Minnesota Mike]

IIRC Echelon's GCB polling did very well in 2020.

They missed by a point in 2020. Echelon was D+4, ended up D+3.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/echelon-insights/

B/C rating from 538.

[Minnesota Mike]

538 GCB average Republican advantage down to 0.2%. RCP to 0.9%.  I guess we will find out what matters more, the GCB or presidential job approval.

[Minnesota Mike]

The Economist/YouGov tracker ticks up to D+6 (44/38) from D+5 (44/39) last week.

Conversely, Politico/Morning Consult ticks down a tad, to D+1 (44/43) this week. I believe it was D+3 or D+4 last week.

Politico/Morning Consult was D+2 last week.

[Minnesota Mike]

Fox News GCB

41-41.

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2022/08/Fox_August-6-9-2022_National_Topline_August-11-Release.pdf

[Minnesota Mike]

The NBC news poll out today has R+2 when it was previously tied back in May. That would seem to be evidence that the Dobbs boost for Democrats was only temporary. How sickening this country is.

It's one data point out of hundreds. So is the Marquette poll with Barnes up 7 and the Fetterman +15 junk.

Doomers live in a world where it is always Monday, raining, and the car has a flat tire.

The ignore button is your friend.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1563227519381565440

[Minnesota Mike]

A D House is a lot like a Trump win in 2020. 538 has it at a 1 in 4 chance, but that's not zero; sometimes you flip a coin twice and get two heads. Not often enough where you'd guess it would happen in any individual case, sure, but not so infrequently that the possibility should be discounted either.

Exactly. Right now I still think Republicans get between 218-230 seats in the House but Dems holding control wouldn't shock me.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1567242440536649728

Most interesting is who is not getting any spending.

[Minnesota Mike]

I believe Rasmussen just came out with 42-43 R, which sounds really good for Republicans but their last poll was 42-46 R.

Closer we get to the election the more Rassy falls in line. Have to maintain that A- rating from 538.

[Minnesota Mike]

Republicans Expand Congressional Lead to 4 Points: Sponsored by Miranda Devine's LAPTOP FROM HELL: Hunter Biden, Big Tech, and the Dirty Secrets the President Tried to Hide

lmfao

Or check out their unhinged conspiracy laden Twitter account. They are not just a bad pollster, they are stop the steal nutjobs who should not be taken seriously.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1578472602401546240

[Minnesota Mike]

NBC just polled me for their next national poll

Did they ask any PA specific questions or just national stuff?

[Minnesota Mike]

Caveat on Nevada: turnout is VERY low at the moment, so it wouldn't take much to turn things around, especially if the rurals start picking up steam. But things do look good as of today.

The rurals can only do much for Rs in NV...and AZ.

Depends on the turnout differential. Clark needs to come in with MUCH larger mail-in ballot numbers before I'm totally comfortable.

One thing to remember, you can vote by mail for the next 12 days in NV counting today, early voting ends in 8. If trends hold Dems should dominate those last 4 days.