North Carolina PPP: Obama 49 Romney 46

[Minnesota Mike]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_080712.pdf

[Minnesota Mike]

Party ID is 45D/33R%. If this is a likely voter poll, then that's a bit skewed. Party turnout in 2008 was D+11. Hard for me to see NC having higher Dem turnout this fall then it did four falls ago (or then it ever has since exit polls were taken).

Actual Party Registration in NC is Dem 43 Rep 31, I see no problem with the Party ID in this poll.

[Minnesota Mike]

True, but this poll isn't of registered voters.

What evidence is there that likely voters are significantly more Republican registered voters? Any difference is likely to be very slight and make little difference on the top line.

BTW If you want to nitpick the crosstabs you could also say the poll is to old and to white.

[Minnesota Mike]

Female + 8???  Surely there can't be that many women in NC. You would think getting gender at least close to even would be straightforward. Not with PPP.

2008 was 54 Female 46 Male, so...

And Nationally it was 53 Female 47 Male.  Female +8 is reasonable and even if you adjust it down a couple of points it barely changes the top line.

[Minnesota Mike]

What evidence is there that likely voters are significantly more Republican registered voters? Any difference is likely to be very slight and make little difference on the top line.

I'm pointing out that the poll assuming higher Democratic turnout than in 2008. How did you not get that out of my original post? There have been plenty of polls that indicate Democratic enthusiasm is down from 2008, not to mention that 2008 was a stand-out, record breaking year for Democrats to begin with (see the chart in this article: http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-are-polls-skewed-toward-obama_648770.html). That is why I find polls that indicate higher Democratic turnout that 2008 to be a bit suspicious. Now what evidence do you have that Democratic turnout will be GREATER this fall than four years ago?

I did say significantly more Republican. A point or two one way or the other in the crosstabs is just statistical noise