Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Talleyrand]

ABC predicting 78 Coalition seats if they don't have any losses in WA... I still think it'll be around 80 in the end.

[Talleyrand]

Any idea where what's left will go?

If the parties leading take them, it'll be 75-70, but with the ALP on less than 0.5% in 3 seats, I suspect you'll see a narrow Coalition majority in the end.

[Talleyrand]

Pauline Hanson has been elected to the Senate. One Nation is at 1.4 quotas in Queensland. They also have 0.6 in NSW.

[Talleyrand]

Turnbull's "victory"  speech is a disaster- he sounds totally unnerved, and is rambling incoherently. Obviously he has not expecting it to be this tight.

[Talleyrand]

So, err, why is fish and chips lady back?

The simplest explanation is that she has filled the "right-wing populist" (if you can ascribe an ideological term to it...) void created by the collapse of the PUP.

[Talleyrand]

Think the ALP getting 72 seats is highly unlikely... Postals will probably very strong for the LNP in Flynn and Capricornia, and the margin in Forde is way too tiny to withstand them either. The Liberals also have an outside chance of grabbing back Hindmarsh.

I doubt any other seat flips, although I think the NXT falls short in Grey.

Kevin Bonham says Melbourne Ports could be an interesting 3-cornered contest with potential to fall to the Liberals or possibly even the Greens, but the ALP in all likelihood has it.

I'm currently guessing Coalition 76 (a bare majority), 69 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 KAP, 1, NXT, 2 IND.

[Talleyrand]

Think the ALP getting 72 seats is highly unlikely... Postals will probably very strong for the LNP in Flynn and Capricornia, and the margin in Forde is way too tiny to withstand them either. The Liberals also have an outside chance of grabbing back Hindmarsh.

I doubt any other seat flips, although I think the NXT falls short in Grey.

Kevin Bonham says Melbourne Ports could be an interesting 3-cornered contest with potential to fall to the Liberals or possibly even the Greens, but the ALP in all likelihood has it.

I'm currently guessing Coalition 76 (a bare majority), 69 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 KAP, 1, NXT, 2 IND.

But how strong though? Labor's current 2PP vote there is 51.5%. The reason why they were so strong the last time around was because of FIFO workers, and there aren't as many of them in this election.

Hmmm... that's interesting. In that case, I think ALP could very well hold on there, but obviously we'll have to wait and see.

Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.

If so postals might not be able to shift any seats, resulting in a 72-72 tie. A net shift of 0.06 to the coalition on TPP wouldn't get them any of the close seats.

Look at the changes in the individual seats- that suggests Forde will almost certainly flip back to the Coalition and Capricornia probably will too. Assuming they hold on to Grey, you'd get a 75-70 result.

[Talleyrand]

Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.

If so postals might not be able to shift any seats, resulting in a 72-72 tie. A net shift of 0.06 to the coalition on TPP wouldn't get them any of the close seats.

Look at the changes in the individual seats- that suggests Forde will almost certainly flip back to the Coalition and Capricornia probably will too. Assuming they hold on to Grey, you'd get a 75-70 result.

My 72-72 guess already has Forde and Capricornia with the Liberals, as AEC shows Liberals narrowly ahead in both right now. They can get to 73 with Grey.

AEC has the ALP narrowly ahead in both. Labor has a 0.1% margin in Forde and 0.7% in Capricornia.

[Talleyrand]

Didn't Swan have poor candidate selection too? The ALP candidate was a former Green who had never voted ALP, and called the incumbent Liberal MP (who grew up as a ward of the state) a "rich white man" during the campaign.

[Talleyrand]

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-odds-on-for-mixed-queensland-result-20160704-gpy369.html

Interesting article on the 5 LNP-held seats the ALP is currently leading in Queensland.

In summation-

The ALP thinks it's unlikely they'll win Flynn or Forde.

Labor is confident it'll take Herbert, and has claimed Longman.

ALP thinks they have a better chance of taking Capricornia than Forde, but don't think they'll get both (whatever that means...)

Looking pretty good for a Coalition government- quite possibly a majority. According to the Guardian, an unnamed Coalition MP thinks they'll get 76-77 when it's all said and done.

[Talleyrand]

The Coalition has taken the lead in Forde, bringing them to 74 seats. They're extremely likely to take Flynn and Capricornia, while Herbert and Hindmarsh look like decent chances too. They'll have a 76-78 seat majority in the end.