Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015

[Talleyrand]

If the ALP ends up forming government, would they be the smallest opposition to win an election in Australian history?

This is all still very surreal. I'm still pausing to remind myself it actually happened. By far the most extraordinary election result I've ever witnessed in my (short) life.

Afaik it's the smallest opposition full stop (though maybe there was something odd around the turn of the century). So yes most likely.

Amazing, amazing.

Right now the ABC projection is 43/39 ALP, with 4 still undecided.

Mansfield- ALP is barely ahead, should end up being a slight LNP win
Maryborough- The Indy will probably overtake Labor on preferences and win against LNP
Whitsunday- LNP very slightly ahead, should hold up
Redlands- The margin here would normally be safe LNP retain, but there are still a lot of booths out

I'd guess well end up with 43/42 or maybe 44/41 ALP in the end, so the ALP will have to look to Wellington and/or Foley to form government. The former has already announced he's definitely not going with the LNP.

[Talleyrand]

Postals have given LNP a fairly insurmountable 51.1% of the vote in Mansfield, so you can safely call that for them; I'd also be pretty comfortable with giving them Redlands.

Assuming Whitsunday holds up the way it is and Foley pulls ahead in Maryborough, the final result will be 43/42/2/2.

[Talleyrand]

Wait, the Tony Abbot party didn't have 73 seats in the last election?

They won 78 seats to Labor's 7 in the last election, with 63% of the TPP. Now it looks like Labor will be back in power with 44/43 seats to the LNP's 42 and 52% of the TPP. It was an incredible reversal, yes.

As for late counting, Whitsunday remains virtually deadlocked, with the LNP about 80 votes ahead, while they have a close to insurmountable lead in Mansfield. As for Maryborough, I'd still expect Foley to take it the end unless preference flow was unexpectedly awful.

[Talleyrand]

Wait, the Tony Abbot party didn't have 73 seats in the last election?

They won 78 seats to Labor's 7 in the last election, with 63% of the TPP. Now it looks like Labor will be back in power with 44/43 seats to the LNP's 42 and 52% of the TPP. It was an incredible reversal, yes.

Wait, the LNP got 52% of the TPP?

No, the ALP will end up getting around 51-52% of the TPP, it seems.

[Talleyrand]

Also

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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-02/queensland-election-lnp-leadership-fiona-simpson-nicholls/6061514

[Talleyrand]

http://www.tallyroom.com.au/24765

Ben Raue has a good rundown on seven close seats (Maryborough, Whitsunday, Mansfield, Glass House, Redlands, Mount Ommaney, and Ferny Grove). The ALP needs 3/7 of these to form a government, but it's currently on track to win only one of them.

He's a bit friendly to the ALP in this analysis but it's worth reading anyway.

[Talleyrand]

A Pauline Hanson win at this election would be akin to Clive Palmer's win in the 2013 federal.

That said, it looks like the most ALP friendly booths have yet to be counted for the two candidate preferred vote, and the preferences from those should be a good deal less friendly than those which are already in. Ian Rickuss should have a low single digit margin for the LNP when all is said and done.

[Talleyrand]

It's unlikely for Hanson but she isn't out just yet.

Wait. The Hanson?

Yeah, she's running for Queensland Parliament in the seat of Lockyer. Fortunately, it looks like she'll probably fall short assuming absentees and postals don't throw any huge surprises our way.

[Talleyrand]

However, as I mentioned before, the revelation that the PUP candidate was a bankrupt will most likely produce a by-election in Ferny Grove. 

Wait, that's a rule?

The most likely event is a challenge by one of the parties which could potentially cause the courts to declare a by-election. If there is one, I think Mark Furner should be dumped in favor of a local candidate. His pre-selection caused much controversy because it seems to be a very opportunistic attempt to revive his political career following his heavy defeat in the last senate election and he has no real connections to Ferny Grove.

I don't see how the ALP will get 45. They're on 44 if you count Ferny Grove and Maryborough in their column (the latter in particular could see an independent, Foley, elected) and trailing and on track to lose in both Whitsunday and Mount Ommaney. Looks like a glitch on the ABC computer.

[Talleyrand]

If a by-election is called (which can only happen once the result is officially declared) it will gain enormous significance for the obvious reasons. 

See also, Mundingburra by-election.

I reckon that with Furner's issues getting more attention in a byelection, the seat could easily be won the LNP, which could possibly give them a plurality of seats (depending on if Maryborough goes ALP), and enough to form a minority government.

[Talleyrand]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-05/peter-wellington-announces-support-for-labor-in-queensland/6072282

Peter Wellington is backing the ALP.

[Talleyrand]

Antony Green is estimating a Labor TPP win of 50.9 - 49.1%

It's now been revised to 51.1 - 48.9%

[Talleyrand]

Kerry Shine didn't win Toowomba North back and Leanne Enoch is a first-time MP. The male female ratio is 27-17 and the number of Labor MPs is 44.

[Talleyrand]

No, I mean Kerry Shine didn't win Toowoomba North at this election. He cut the margin from 9% to 2%, but he lost to Trevor Watts of the LNP.

[Talleyrand]

Final Results