MA Special Election Watch Thread

[Talleyrand]

So will it be Michael Cuapano or Ed Markey representing the Dems?

I hope not. Both are longtime Washington hacks who'd struggle to compete with Brown, in my opinion. I'd like someone like Carmen Ortiz or Ben Downing.

[Talleyrand]

I hope State Senator Ben Downing runs. He seems like the kind of fresh outsider who'd be able to keep up with or outpace Brown on the campaign trail, although he'd start out with a big deficit.  But in the long-term, I think he'd be better suited for this campaign than an old hack like Markey, Capuano, and Lynch (And BTW, I have the utmost respect for Markey and Capuano, but I don't think they should, especially Markey. Why would he want to give up being one of the most powerful and senior members of the House to become a freshman Senator 100th in seniority at the age of 67?)

[Talleyrand]

I think we're underestimating Brown's political prowess here. Let's not forget that even as the man went down to a seven point defeat in 2012, exit polls showed that sixty percent of voters still had him in their good graces. And let's not forget that this is the man who outperformed the losing presidential nominee of his presidential party by eight and a half points in the election. In 2013, Brown would face a less favorable environment for the Democratic Party, less negative coattails, and a less well-funded challenger (IIRC, Senator-elect Warren raised $39 million to unseat Brown; I think it's pretty likely that whoever Brown faces next year, if he chooses to run, will not receive that kind of money). Not to mention, this will be a quick six month campaign, not the year and a half long slog that Warren had to build up her name recognition.

I believe Lynch would all but assure a Republican victory, and I feel that a longtime liberal Congressman, like Capuano or Markey, would come across as an old hack in a campaign against Brown, in a way that the fresh-faced Warren did not. Democrats may receive an outsider for a candidate, like State Senator Downing, U.S. Attorney Ortiz, and possibly Congresswoman Niki Tsongas, but the risks for those three are very high, and Brown might actually cruise against such inexperienced candidates. However, I could envision one of those three using the tactics Brown used in 2010 against him, and pulling out a win.

[Talleyrand]

Does Massachusetts have open or closed primaries? If it has open primaries, I could see Brown supporters, mostly Republican crossing over and voting for Lynch in the primary, both to give their guy a better shot in the general and to pick the most conservative candidate from the Democratic side.

[Talleyrand]

Markey's in.

http://www.boston.com/politicalintelligence/2012/12/27/rep-markey-run-senate-special-election/1aidfQ9YeNT0xXXPnWuS8I/story.html

Doesn't make sense. Markey is the 9th most senior Representative, serving since 1976. Why to give up such an impressive seniority to become freshman Senator?

I completely agree with Kalwejt. I don't know why he's giving up thirty-seven years of clout to become 100th in seniority in a body of 100. Not to mention at the age of sixty-seven.

I'm not too optimistic on his chances against Brown either, to be honest, though I'll support him.

[Talleyrand]

Democratic Party won't get a House majority in at least 6 years and Pelosi put Rahall as Natural Resources Chairman rather than Markey from 2007-2010. Senate gives national spotlight and he can be more powerful than he had been in House.

I suspect Rahall is gone either through retirement or defeat in 2014/2016, so that won't be an issue.

He's not doing his constituents a service by throwing out 37 years of seniority for a potential shot at a Senate seat which he will stay in for at most 2 in a realistic scenario, not enough time to build up serious clout or or seniority, especially at his age.

I suspect Brown wins this if we nominate Markey.

[Talleyrand]

He also took a shot at Markey over residency.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/scott-brown-prods-ed-markey-on-massachusetts-residency-85679.html?hp=f3

He follows the winning "OMG, Warren claimed she was Native-American!!!" strategy.

Residency can actually be a legitimate issue, unlike racial ancestry. If he successfully casts this election a choice between an "independent-minded Massachusetts workingman" like himself and "a tired old extreme hack who lives 99% of the time in Washington", it can actually help his campaign, unlike the "OMG, Warren claimed she was Native-American!!!" strategy. Brown will be able to turn the former into a question of who can better represent Massachusetts, while his attack on Warren was just an ineffective, bizarre attack on her character.

I hope Downing enters. Democrats need to give Markey some competition in the primary to actually see if he can campaign, and have a decent alternative on standby.

[Talleyrand]

That's a good point. If any other serious candidates enter for the Democrats, the DSCC should make sure they sign a pact to remain civil, if they won't do it on their own.

[Talleyrand]

The main way that could be avoided is if they avoided mentioning each other directly, even if they played the generation card/experience card, etc. In that case, the opposition couldn't take the loser's ads and then rerun them (in some manner) effectively.  

I still think Brown will win against Markey, although it will be close. I think with Downing there might be more uncertainty, though I would still expect Brown to beat him narrowly.

He's built up the goodwill and name recognition to hit the ground running in a way his opponents will be unable to do in a span of a few months most likely.