Democratic Trend in Georgia: A Thesis

[greenforest32]

Georgia has been 13 points to the right of the popular vote in each of the last two elections. Prior to 2000, it was closer. If anything Georgia is trending to the right. Yes, I know they'll argue about how far to the right it was for the Bush elections, but if you actually look at numbers you'll see that it was 12 and then 14 points to the right of the popular vote. Stop spreading gossip and myths about a state that has been consistently 13 points to the right of the national vote. If all things were equal, GA would be 56-44. Furthermore, when Georgia used to be in the Democratic column, it still voted for the more conservative party. Stop the gossip!

LOLOLOLOLOL

Fact: Between 2000 and 2010, the population of Latinos increased by 96%, Asians by 81%, Blacks by 26%, Whites by 6%

Fact: By that measurement, the makeup of new growth over the past decade is as such: Black 41%, Latino 28%, White 21%, Other 10%

Fact: Georgia's white population is declining by 1 point per year (65% in 2000, 55% in 2010)

Fact: Georgia's white electorate is declining at roughly the same rate (78% in 1996, 75% in 2000, 73% in 2004, 64% in 2008, 61% in 2012)

Fact: 90% of the growth in metro Atlanta over the past decade was non-white

Fact: ~89% of non-whites voted for Obama in 2008

Fact: ~86% of non-whites voted for Obama in 2012

*channels inner Dick Morris*

Georgia will flip in 2016¹

----
¹ My numbers (decimals included):

Projected 2016 Democratic vote in Georgia:
24% of the white vote which is 60% of the electorate (60 x .24) = 14.40%
93% of the black vote which is 32% of the electorate (32 x .93) = 29.76% (44.16% cumulative)
74% of the latino vote which is 5% of the electorate (5 x .74) = 3.70% (47.86% cumulative)
72% of the asian vote which is 2% of the electorate (2 x .72) = 1.44% (49.30% cumulative)
72% of the 'other' vote which is 1% of the electorate (1 x .72) = 0.72% (50.02% cumulative)

[greenforest32]

Here's a fact. In order for Democrats to win Georgia, they'd have to win nearly 400 EV.

1. 400 EV isn't that high when you consider Obama won 365 EVs in 2008 and 332 EVs in 2012.

2. That's not even true if Georgia swings/trends D in 2016. If Georgia trends from say R+5.6 in 2012 to R+2 in 2016, then a Democrat winning 52% nationally in 2016 could carry Georgia. 52% in the 2016 map would probably be in the low to mid-300 EVs like 2008/2012.

edit: Oh wow, I worded #2 wrong. I meant to say if a Democrat performs about 4 points better in Georgia in 2016 compared to 2012, then a Democrat could carry it with 49-50%. Swings like that have happened recently (see NV, CO, VA, NC in 2000-2008). Not to say it's certain to happen, but if any states are due for it in 2016/2020, it's ones like Arizona and Georgia. A trend of D+5.5 is probably too much for one election though.

[greenforest32]

*channels inner Dick Morris*

Georgia will flip in 2016¹

----
¹ My numbers (decimals included):

Projected 2016 Democratic vote in Georgia:
24% of the white vote which is 60% of the electorate (60 x .24) = 14.40%
93% of the black vote which is 32% of the electorate (32 x .93) = 29.76% (44.16% cumulative)
74% of the latino vote which is 5% of the electorate (5 x .74) = 3.70% (47.86% cumulative)
72% of the asian vote which is 2% of the electorate (2 x .72) = 1.44% (49.30% cumulative)
72% of the 'other' vote which is 1% of the electorate (1 x .72) = 0.72% (50.02% cumulative)

^^ Damn, is it just me or is this actually pretty realistic? Is everyone expecting the black share of the electorate to drop below the 30s once Obama isn't on the ticket or something?

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/114314/georgia-senate-2014-democrats-best-chance

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EDIT: Also included if anyone wants to do some plug-and-play: