I don't know if he could get those last few points, even with those numbers. I was looking at the Arizona exit poll numbers and McCain won Arizona by 8.5 points in 2008.
If Obama hit 80% of the AZ Latino vote in 2012, that would be an increase of about 4 points compared to the 56% he got in 2008 (assuming a 16% vote share) right? He'd still have to cover those last 4.5 points and he could only get that by the Latino vote share increasing (do we have any estimates on what it will be in 2012 compared to 2008's 16%?) or doing better with whites. He'd have to do more than 5% better than 2008 with AZ whites to get another 4 points.
That might have been possible if he crushed Romney in the first debate but I don't think it's too likely with the way things went.
Wait, I did the math wrong on that didn't I?
An additional four points
to Obama would be four points
from Romney for an eight point shift right? Maybe it's not so far off.
