Cannabis '15: The Long Wait Until 2016

[greenforest32]

For some reason I read it as 'over three years'

The Colorado numbers do seem a bit lower though.

EDIT: Just looked over the numbers for California's initiative from 2010 and the $1.4b/yr figure is in line with the others when you consider California's population is about 10x of Oregon's: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_19_%282010%29#Fiscal_impact

So a rough estimate is that the states are losing out on $10-15 billion a year in direct tax revenues? That's about 1.3-2.0% of the total taxes they collect every year: http://www2.census.gov/govs/statetax/11staxrank.pdf

And that's just new revenue. There would be spending reductions as well in things like incarceration.

[greenforest32]

Greenforest, whats the situation in Oregon look like?

There's been virtually no advertising beyond a state representative and the former Secretary of State endorsing it: http://www.wweek.com/portland/article-19599-mari_wanna.html

It's losing in the polls already:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/07/oregon-divided-on-gay-marriage.html

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http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f35f6734-8377-4585-bb0e-a1a5fc418199

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I think it will fail come election day but it will probably get more than the 26% the last legalization measure got in 1986: http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Oregon_Ballot_Measure_5_%281986%29

[greenforest32]

The Oregon initiative is very poorly worded/written. Minors for example would be able to purchase marijuana plant seeds.

Eventhough I personally am in favor of legalization I would probably vote against it.

Is that really any different than how alcohol is treated in some states?

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Seems like a minor issue that could be addressed later anyway if it turns out to be such a big deal. I'll be voting yes as I think the measure as a whole represents a net improvement compared to the status quo.

[greenforest32]

Well beyond that provision which I don't think is really bad enough that it should sink the entire initiative, it doesn't seem much worse than the Washington or Colorado measures.

Aside from the state-run store requirement, it's actually more permissive on the provisions like hemp and possession limits but maybe that's the problem for a state that doesn't even have dispensaries? At least that's the impression I get when I see some of their donation ads:



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Yeah and I'm pretty sure the Nebraska legalization measure didn't make the ballot. Their main site (http://www.neprop19.org/) is down and the signature deadline has already passed: http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Nebraska_2012_ballot_measures

[greenforest32]

http://blog.norml.org/2012/10/09/one-month-before-the-election-colorado-marijuana-legalization-still-up-ten-points/

I could see a 2016 legalization measure do well in Massachusetts: http://blog.norml.org/2012/10/09/massachusetts-medical-marijuana-initiative-set-to-win-in-a-landslide/

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[greenforest32]

That Colorado poll only has 50% saying yes though. I remember how the polls were showing California would legalize Marijuana a month before the election, and then it all fell apart.

Yeah but don't you think the California initiative would have done better had it been in 2012 instead of 2010 (higher total turnout, proportionally more younger people voting, etc)?

Based on the polling and shifts against in the end, I'd guess Colorado is a tossup while Washington is lean pass and Oregon is likely fail.

[greenforest32]

Any word from the Feds about these initiatives?

I suspect they will crack down on any commercial production/distribution activity or regulations in a bit. There's not much they can do about reduced possession penalties I think, unless they challenge the measures as a whole.

I am surprised how well the initiatives did at the ballot, even Oregon's which had little advertising and lots of negative press is now at ~46.5% with nearly all of the votes counted: http://www.oregonvotes.gov/results/2012G/645489344.html

It's kind of surreal to see the post-election reaction when an issue like this is forced to focus through an initiative.

[greenforest32]

Looks like 7 states (AK, RI, ME, OR, CA, MA, NV) are being targeted through 2013-2016 for CO/WA style legalization bills and initiatives: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rob-kampia/state-marijuana-legalization_b_2377847.html

I'm still not sure when or how the federal government is going to respond to the Washington and Colorado measures but this seems to be their plan:

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[greenforest32]

Pretty thorough article about the recent developments: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/26/obamas-drug-war-medical-marijuana_n_2546178.html

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I wonder if there's support for at least federal decriminalization at this point.

[greenforest32]

Looks like 7 states (AK, RI, ME, OR, CA, MA, NV) are being targeted through 2013-2016 for CO/WA style legalization bills and initiatives: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rob-kampia/state-marijuana-legalization_b_2377847.html

Really haven't seen much action in 2013 yet. The Oregon legalization bill had a hearing a while back but that's been it so far. I don't get the impression it's going to pass the legislature in 2013 and Kitzhaber opposed the 2012 legalization ballot measure in Oregon (though he did support the 2010 medical marijuana dispensary initiative that ultimately failed) so it's probably back to the ballot. Not sure if they're aiming for 2014 or 2016 for that either. On that note:

1. Maryland became the 19th state to legalize medical marijuana, although it's a very limited program.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/05/01/marijuana-maryland-medical/2127433/

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2. The Colorado legislature passed the bills for the regulation and sale of marijuana in the state. After the Governor signs it, the bill covering the new marijuana excise/sales tax rates will automatically go to the November 2013 ballot for voter approval because of the state's TABOR amendment.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/08/marijuana-legalization-bi_0_n_3238274.html

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[greenforest32]

1. Vermont becomes the 17th state to decriminalize small possession: http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/05/13/vermont-decriminalizes-possession-of-marijuana/

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New Hampshire is now the only New England state with neither decriminalization or medical marijuana. The other five all have both. Ripe grounds for legalization. Massachusetts at the ballot in 2016 is probably the best bet.

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2. Illinois is on track to be the 20th state to legalize medical marijuana though it's a fairly restrictive proposal like Maryland: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/09/illinois-medical-marijuan_0_n_3245500.html

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[greenforest32]

1. The Illinois Senate approved the medical marijuana bill and it's now at Quinn's desk: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/20/pat-quinn-medical-marijuana-illinois_n_3308005.html

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2. An update on the Oregon proposal(s). Now we're talkin': http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2013/05/pot_pressure_mounts_in_salem_a.html

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I guess they want it on the ballot either way because they're confident Kitzhaber would veto the bill. Hickenlooper and Gregoire probably would have done the same if the Washington and Colorado legalization measures were bills from the state legislature.

Edit: Oh and since HB3371 increases taxes, it needs a 3/5 supermajority in both chambers which Democrats are two seats short of in both chambers. That means 2 Republicans in the state house and 2 in the state senate need to support it as well to send it to the Governor's desk whereas referring it to the ballot only requires a simple majority in both chambers, something Democrats do have.

[greenforest32]

Quinn signed the Illinois medical marijuana bill. Similar thing happened in New Hampshire with Hassan so now there's 20 states with legal medical marijuana (21 if you include Maryland's 2013 bill which most reports seem to be excluding).

This article has a rundown of states looking into it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/30/marijuana-legalization-states_n_3838866.html

I think they're overrating the chances in Vermont and Rhode Island. It just doesn't seem like we're at the point where a legislature will vote to legalize (just look how hard it is to get decriminalization or medical marijuana passed) and I'm not sure why they talk about the possibility of ballot initiatives in those two states as neither VT or RI have initiatives.

[greenforest32]

http://www.statesmanjournal.com/article/20130912/NEWS/309120047/Leaders-consider-writing-pot-law?nclick_check=1

Democrat and Republican leaders of the Oregon State House (Currently 34-26 Democrat) are considering drafting their own measure to legalize marijuana to put on the 2014 ballot.

Most cite the confusing and unclear nature of the 2012 legalization initiative as the main reason for its failure, and a professionally written law would likely see more success.

I'm still betting on another initiative in 2014 rather than the legislature referring a measure. The 2013 legislative legalization bill they talked about only passed in a state house committee as opposed to both houses of the legislature. That said, the 2012 results on those marijuana measures did embolden Democrats here a bit regarding marijuana in this legislative session (pardon the link ): http://www.theweedblog.com/which-state-has-had-the-most-marijuana-reform-during-the-2013-legislative-session/

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[greenforest32]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MA_926.pdf

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[greenforest32]

http://justsaynow.firedoglake.com/2013/01/14/majority-of-arizona-voters-would-support-regulating-marijuana-like-alcohol/

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http://www.mpp.org/states/nevada/NevadaResults.pdf

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/russ-belville/voters-oppose-marijuana-legalization_b_3322137.html

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[greenforest32]

I haven't been following this.  Where are we going next in terms of referenda?  Who's going to do this in 2014?  Oregon?  Rhode Island?  Vermont?

It really depends. A lot of groups want to wait for 2016 as turn-out is higher in presidential elections meaning success is more likely but some think it should continue in relatively supportive states in the 2014 mid-terms to keep the momentum. I'd say Oregon is likely to have an initiative on the ballot in 2014 and Nevada in 2016. Arizona looked like it could have been either earlier in the year but now probably in 2016. Not sure about California. Maine and Massachusetts are likely to have 2016 initiatives too, maybe Michigan as well. Vermont and Rhode Island don't have initiative systems.

[greenforest32]

Oh yeah I forgot about Alaska. It's kind of strange though, their 2014 initiative would be on the August primary ballot if they get enough signatures. Don't know why they're aiming for that date.

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20130829/feds-say-no-busting-pot-users-green-states-alaskas-decision-nears

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[greenforest32]

Michigan in 2016?  That's kind of a surprise to me.  What are its prospects?

Well the polling is pretty good nationwide and I can't imagine Michigan diverges much (though the most recent state poll there was from Epic-MRA...). There's also been a lot of action on the municipal ballots there: http://norml.org/news/2013/09/05/michigan-lansing-voters-to-decide-this-fall-on-marijuana-legalization-ordinance

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Plus the medical marijuana measure from 2008 got 63% of the vote so... why not? Basically more to go on compared to, say, Ohio.

[greenforest32]

http://www.hightimes.com/read/oregon%E2%80%99s-inevitable-pot-legalization-2014

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[greenforest32]

http://blog.seattlepi.com/marijuana/2013/11/05/reports-landslide-victory-for-legal-marijuana-in-portland-maine/

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[greenforest32]

http://www.kokomotribune.com/local/x1636707573/Hoosiers-and-state-lawmakers-at-odds

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[greenforest32]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/in-major-shift-dc-voters-strongly-support-legalizing-marijuana/2014/01/15/9fcc6d04-7d6a-11e3-93c1-0e888170b723_story.html

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RE: Massachusetts & 2016

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/massachusetts/2014/01/13/advocates-marijuana-legalization-turn-attention-massachusetts/OeBlgcAC5MtWvNKYXoysAK/story.html

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[greenforest32]

Maybe California will have a legalization measure on the ballot this year:

http://www.scpr.org/news/2014/02/01/41935/california-marijuana-legalization-supporters-to-st/

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[greenforest32]

The 2014 legislative session for the Oregon legislature is ending and the aforementioned possibility of the legislature referring a legalization measure to the ballot didn't happen. Looks like it's back to the initiative(s).

http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2014/03/marijuana_legalization_oregon.html

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