Oregon political trends thread

[greenforest32]

Where do you think that 6th House Seat will be drawn if you guys do get an another seat in the 2020 Census? What section of the state? Your from there obviously so would probably have a hunch I figure on that.

I thought the Portland ex-urbs were growing the most but I guess the middle of the state county wise is where all the population growth is now looking at that map above.

That middle area doesn't really have that many people on its own. If you add up the populations of Deschutes, Crook, and Jefferson counties it's only about ~201k and while they were growing faster off of a smaller base, I don't think the growth will be that high for that area in the coming decades considering higher gas prices (Poor Bend, the proposed PNW high-speed rail line and its connection to California don't even touch it D:) and a good part of the growth was from the real estate boom which has fizzled in Bend but we'll see.

The Portland metro area (including Vancouver) is projected to gain an additional 1 million residents by 2030 (http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2009/05/portlandarea_growth_blurs_rura.html) and I expect this is probably where a 6th house seat would be placed by shifting the 4th district down further and rearranging the existing 1st, 3rd, and 5th districts. Most likely we'll have 5 districts in Western Oregon and one in Eastern Oregon that crosses over a bit in the North/Central/Southern areas.

I don't think an electoral college for a Governor's race would make a difference. The Dems rely on the city of Portland and the ex-urbs around Portland to pull out tight races right? Thats where most of the population is right now in the state: in Portland and the ex-urbs surrounding Portland.

Yeah it really wouldn't help much considering the EC vote would probably be weighted by population. I guess they just feel like counties = people and if majority of the land mass votes against you, you should lose. I always think of rural Illinois for this

[greenforest32]

Josephine county update:

the county commissioners have even said they might have to declare bankruptcy or merge with some other counties if the federal "timber payments" expire and the upcoming property tax measure fails

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2012/05/because_of_tax_levy_defeat_jos.html

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[greenforest32]

58 cents per $1,000?! In the rural counties in Virginia, it's usually around 58 cents per $100.

Is that for just local? Those above figures were for just local I believe and most rates listed here are in per $1,000.

I haven't been able to find a state-by-state property tax rate comparison. Closest I could find was this and I'm not sure what the rate listed refers to (% of property value?) or if it's state or state+local: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/11leonhardt-avgproptaxrates.html

[greenforest32]

Virginia's is only assessed locally. Does Oregon have a state-level real estate tax?

Oh wow, I guess we don't. Looks like it's done by the local governments: http://www.oregon.gov/dor/ptd/property.shtml

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[greenforest32]

We don't have a statewide real estate transfer tax either (I think one of our 36 counties assesses a small one) and this year the realtors are ponying up cash to constitutionally ban any new state or local real estate transfer taxes: http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Oregon_Real_Estate_Transfer_Tax_Amendment_%282012%29

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[greenforest32]

Ethnic demographics from the Census are always interesting to see as well

Little more on this:

http://censusscope.org/2010Census/states.php?state=OR&name=Oregon



http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2012/05/oregons_minority_births_on_ris.html

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[greenforest32]

Interesting poll about Oregon's ban on pumping your own gas: http://www.bizjournals.com/portland/news/2012/07/20/survey-oregon-drivers-happy-with.html

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There was a ballot measure back in November 1982 (Measure 4) that would have repealed the ban and it got ~42.5% of the vote: http://bluebook.state.or.us/state/elections/elections20.htm

I was thinking maybe the support for repealing it had increased since that time because the ban was probably in more states back then but I guess not. Current figures are hard to come by but a 2003 article (http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Self-serve-gas-in-Oregon-Not-likely-1114712.php) says there were about 7,600 people working statewide in that position. I'm not sure if that's over-counting it by including employees who would be employed at the stations even without the ban.

The specific law (ORS 480.315) lists 17 reasons for the ban and it's a bit fun to read: https://www.oregonlaws.org/ors/480.315

Between us and New Jersey I wonder who will get rid of it first? And I wonder how it will play out with stations focused solely on electric vehicles?

[greenforest32]

Then there's this map from Nate Silver: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/oregon-swing-state-or-latte-drinking.html

Another relevant article about four years later: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/16/oregon-sitting-at-the-border-of-safe-and-in-play/

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[greenforest32]

I think the divide will stay as the rural areas are losing population/growing slowly compared to the urban areas but that's not to say that there won't be a change in some policies. For example the current Democratic Governor has increased logging on state forests though not to the extent that Republicans would like: http://www.capitalpress.com/newest/ml-kitzhaber-conference-logging-030212

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Also I've realized 'Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections' probably isn't the best board for this thread as it really isn't focused on elections.

Could the mods move it to a more appropriate board (Political Geography & Demographics?)? Thanks.

[greenforest32]

I had a feeling there was a particular donor behind all that recent conservative funding in Clackamas Clackistan County: http://www.wweek.com/portland/article-19841-the_king_of_clackistan.html

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