Which states do you see moving left or right over the next 20 years and why?

[greenforest32]

I think the majority of states will be moving left (not political party wise per se, but rather on issues) over the next 20 years due to minority population growth and social conservatism/religion dying down a bit. I think it's going to be particularly noticeable in the Southwest.

You can already see the change in California where the California Republican party makes up an increasingly smaller super-minority (both in voter registration and seats in the state legislature) as it clings desperately to fiscal and social conservatism. They'll be forced to move left towards the center if they don't want to stay irrelevant.

This trend is also already visible in Nevada and New Mexico (and Colorado to an extent). I expect it to continue and expand to Arizona and Texas. Utah will be affected but it probably won't be as noticeable as religion is so strong there.

What do you think? What political changes do you see in states over the next 20 years and why?

[greenforest32]

So something like this?

I doubt Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois are going to trend R. Wisconsin either (although I'll hold off on that after a few more elections).

[greenforest32]

Yeah, but make New York toss up along with New Jersey

I think NY will trend R, but it will still be reliably Democratic for the foreseeable future.

I doubt Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois are going to trend R. Wisconsin either (although I'll hold off on that after a few more elections).

MN is already trending R. Its trended R for 4 out of the last 6 Presidential elections.

Minnesota's % vote for a Democratic President in 2008 was the highest in 3 decades. If Republicans hold the state legislature in 2012 (they won both houses for the first time in decades in 2010) then I'll concede.

[greenforest32]

2020- Democrats begin to solidify western base, exurbs are gaining power in Midwest.

2030- Democrats expand with their new western base, solidification of the "New South" as immigrants and white collar workers continue to move in. Republicans continue to gain as the Midwestern cities continue to crumble.

2040- GOP expands into the Northeast as more liberals move into the New South and West.

2050 - Liberal flight from CA....continued Northward expansion of the exurban GOP base and the expansion of the "New South" into marginal areas and perhaps enough outsiders finally begin to overrun to the Mormon states?  No one wants to live in Wyoming, so its pretty much stuck in time.

So what's your rationale for predicting the Southeast trending D but the Midwest + parts of the northeast (NY/NJ/CT) trending R?

[greenforest32]

2020- Democrats begin to solidify western base, exurbs are gaining power in Midwest.

2030- Democrats expand with their new western base, solidification of the "New South" as immigrants and white collar workers continue to move in. Republicans continue to gain as the Midwestern cities continue to crumble.

2040- GOP expands into the Northeast as more liberals move into the New South and West.

2050 - Liberal flight from CA....continued Northward expansion of the exurban GOP base and the expansion of the "New South" into marginal areas and perhaps enough outsiders finally begin to overrun to the Mormon states?  No one wants to live in Wyoming, so its pretty much stuck in time.

So what's your rationale for predicting the Southeast trending D but the Midwest + parts of the northeast (NY/NJ/CT) trending R?

What is your rationale for Appalachia, the Northeast, and Montana?

These aren't my maps. Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona are already trending D. What reason is there for the Northeast to trend R? They have stayed and gone further to the left (CT/VT etc) with the possible exception of Pennsylvania (the 2012 elections will be very telling for MN/PA/WI). Also Montana is just Idaho-lite in my view. I don't understand how they have 2 Democratic senators and a Republican controlled state legislature.