Canada Federal Representation 2024

[Krago]

Here's a map of the real boundary between Northern and Southern Ontario.

[Krago]

Ten more B.C. ridings:

https://bit.ly/Canada343


I've fixed West Vancouver and the B.C. Interior.

[Krago]

Two developments in Canadian redistribution:

(1) Nova Scotia released their response to the MPs objections today.  It looks like the Commission is spoiling for a legal fight over Cape Breton and Indigenous consultation.

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/ns/rprt/repfin/adm_e.aspx#ovrw


(2) The PROC Committee is finally turning its attention to Ontario tomorrow at noon.  Han Dong is testifying, but not about that other thing.

https://www.ourcommons.ca/DocumentViewer/en/44-1/PROC/meeting-67/notice

[Krago]

Of course it's an awful map.  Not even Jesus can save Don Valley East now.

Here are the population deviation ranges:

Central North York/Toronto (5): -2.5% to +7.4%
Etobicoke (3): +3.7% to +10.4%
North York - north of Hwy 401 (4): -7.1% to +1.4%
Scarborough (6): -12.6% to -8.1%
Toronto (6): +1.5% to +8.4%


The populations are definitely unbalanced, but the overall range (-12.6% to +10.4%) is still within what the Ontario Commission deems acceptable.

[Krago]

Ruby Sahota, MP (Lib - Brampton North) wants to keep the neighbourhood of Springdale together in one riding.  Here's a plan that also keeps Bramalea together, but splits Brampton East and makes for an odd-looking new seat of Brampton North--Gore--Mayfield.


https://bit.ly/Canada343

[Krago]

I'm not sure what MP Peter Fragiskatos (Lib - London North Centre) is going to say tomorrow at the PROC Committee, but here's a plan to keep London North Centre (more or less) intact.


https://bit.ly/Canada343

[Krago]

Here are the results of the 2022 Ontario Provincial Election transposed onto the new federal boundaries in Northern Ontario.

New Federal Riding	Margin	PC	NDP	LIB	GRN	NB+ONT	OTH
Kapuskasing—Timmins—Mushkegowuk	PC +14.2%	51.0%	36.8%	4.7%	2.5%	4.2%	0.8%
Kenora—Kiiwetinoong	PC +24.4%	53.0%	28.6%	9.7%	3.9%	3.9%	0.9%
Manitoulin—Nickel Belt	NDP +15.5%	31.7%	47.2%	9.3%	4.8%	6.7%	0.4%
Nipissing—Timiskaming	PC +12.3%	46.1%	33.7%	11.5%	3.4%	3.9%	1.4%
Parry Sound—Muskoka	PC +4.7%	45.4%	7.7%		40.6%	5.7%	0.6%
Sault Ste. Marie—Algoma	PC +2.9%	42.9%	40.0%	7.0%	2.8%	4.8%	2.5%
Sudbury	NDP +13.2%	29.6%	42.9%	17.3%	4.6%	4.1%	1.5%
Thunder Bay—Rainy River	PC +7.3%	39.4%	32.1%	21.6%	3.0%	3.3%	0.6%
Thunder Bay—Superior North	NDP +2.5%	31.6%	34.1%	27.8%	2.9%	2.7%	1.0%

Last year, the NDP won 7 of the 13 existing provincial ridings and the PCs won 6.  Using the new federal ridings, the PCs would win 6 seats and the NDP would be reduced to three.

What are the odds that Doug Ford will adopt the 122 new federal ridings as Ontario's new provincial electoral map without any changes?  What are the odds that it survives a court challenge?

[Krago]

The PROC Committee has released its reports on the MPs' objections to the Alberta and Quebec electoral boundaries.

Alberta Report

Quebec Report


The Quebec report has an incredible section:

"Mr. Brunelle-Duceppe also pointed out that only one intervener, Marc Perron, proposed redistributing the electoral districts this way during the public hearings. In fact, Mr. Brunelle-Duceppe’s letter of objection is accompanied by a letter from Mr. Perron, who now says he regrets making this proposal."

I wonder if Mr. Perron's family has been released.

[Krago]

https://twitter.com/bigcitypolitics/status/1661864607294578688?s=46&t=YHDSok...

The shapefile direct download link:
https://t.co/7HE7IKL7Ch

https://borealisdata.ca/api/access/datafile/449029

[Krago]

I reviewed the final boundaries commission reports to put together a combined list of the new FEDs.

One interesting tidbit.  When producing their chart of riding names and populations:

• Five provinces used the term 'Deviation' (AB, NL, NS, ON, QC)
• Three provinces used the term 'Variance' (BC, MB, NB)
• Two provinces used the term 'Variation' (PE, SK)

I will calculate the Gini index and Loosemore-Hanby Index for each commission.  I had never heard of the last one, but it was mentioned in the Quebec report.  Any other statistical measures of population inequality that anyone would like to promote?

[Krago]

PROV	PR	2021 Population	Seats	Quota	Gini	Rank	L-H	Rank
NL	10	510,550	7	72,936	0.1134	10	0.0906	10
PE	11	154,331	4	38,583	0.0077	1	0.0057	1
NS	12	969,383	11	88,126	0.0688	7	0.0596	9
NB	13	775,610	10	77,561	0.0724	9	0.0545	8
QC	24	8,501,833	78	108,998	0.0325	5	0.0238	5
ON	35	14,223,942	122	116,590	0.0458	6	0.0321	6
MB	46	1,342,153	14	95,868	0.0241	3	0.0176	4
SK	47	1,132,505	14	80,893	0.0699	8	0.0544	7
AB	48	4,262,635	37	115,206	0.0223	2	0.0154	2
BC	59	5,000,879	43	116,300	0.0243	4	0.0160	3

[Krago]

All thirty electoral boundaries commissioners are being summoned to Ottawa in the first week of October. They will be discussing their experiences and making recommendations for changes to the EBRA legislation.

A friend of mine will be there and has offered to convey some of the more sane suggestions. If anyone would like to post their best ideas I will make sure that he sees them.

[Krago]

Here are some of the ideas so far:

(1) Allow Commissions to publish multiple proposals.

Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan would have been better off if they have been able to create ‘status quo’ and ‘change’ proposals, that would encourage more public participation.

New Brunswick could have had both a ‘split Saint John’ proposal and a ‘split Moncton’ proposal.


(2) Relax the notification requirements for people who want to present at hearings.

The ‘23-day notice rule’ is too restrictive, particularly when hearings are often added or rescheduled.


(3) Consider expanding the Commissions from three to five members.

Guarantee that at least one member be from an Indigenous community.  Require that one of the commissioners be an academic expert in the field.


(4) Have a ‘Riding Builder’-type app that actually works!

Lord know how much money Elections Canada spent on that piece-of-sh**t that they eventually abandoned.


(5) Allow public participation after the second map (Report) as well.

There were changes made after the second round that the public probably wouldn't have supported.

The Ontario Commission in 2012 added hearings at the end of their public consultations to consider big changes proposed at the earlier meetings.

[Krago]

The new Representation Order has been proclaimed.

Implementation of New Federal Electoral Boundaries

The new boundaries take effect on any federal election that is called on or after April 23, 2024.