Canadian Redistribution - Provincial and Municipal

[Krago]

‘A missed opportunity for our people’: Indigenous leaders urge province to revisit electoral map

[Krago]

Why I Expect OMB Decision on Hamilton’s Ward Boundaries Will be a Landmark Province-Wide Precedent

[Krago]

The OMB threw out the map drawn by Hamilton city councillors in favour of one recommended by their ward boundary review consultants last January.  Council is meeting on Monday to decide if they want to appeal the decision to Divisional Court.

https://www.omb.gov.on.ca/ecs/CaseDetail.aspx?n=MM170025

https://www.thespec.com/news-story/7994290-omb-rejects-hamilton-council-s-preferred-ward-boundary-plan/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/ward-boundary-review-1.4445476

https://globalnews.ca/news/3914515/councillor-voices-concern-as-omb-orders-new-ward-boundaries-in-hamilton/

https://www.thepublicrecord.ca/2017/12/ontario-municipal-board-tosses-councils-attempt-to-gerrymander-wards-axes-ward-14-creates-new-ward-on-mountain/

[Krago]

The PEI Electoral Boundaries Commission was resurrected to develop an 18-district 'Mixed-Member Proportional' map.

Here is the background:

https://www.electoralboundaries.pe.ca/2018-mmp-map

And here is their special report:

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/37f9d9_9a647b57c74b412f94b019f31d75dadc.pdf

[Krago]

I just noticed that there is a new PEI district called 'Stanhope-Marshfield'.

Can we call it 'Stan-Marsh' for short?

[Krago]

I got ahold of some 2021 population projections, so I decided to do what I do best.

Using the provincial figures, Alberta would add five seats in the House of Commons and Ontario would gain one.  All other provinces would remain the same, including BC.

Here’s what an Ontario map of 122 Federal ridings (9 North, 113 South) could look like.

https://goo.gl/6UMkjz

[Krago]

Conestoga-Preston-Hespeler and Galt-Brant?

By the way, having that maple leaf in your name makes it difficult to PM you.  You don't appear on any searches of member's names.  Or maybe that was the point?

[Krago]

And having a riding named after John Galt would make the Libertarians happy.

Anyway, I've updated my map with changes in Wellington, Halton and Peel.  But Conestoga-Brant stays put.

https://goo.gl/6UMkjz

[Krago]

Oh my god, they killed Conestoga--Brant! You bastards!

Please check my new improved map (same URL).

[Krago]

Have you done an Alberta map. Five new seats would be interesting. Also, you should do an NS one because I said so

Any preliminary thoughts on Pictou-Preston and Sackville-Bedford?

[Krago]

Anyway, I've updated my map with 32 proposed federal ridings in Atlantic Canada.

Bonavista--Burin--Avalon!  Truro--Cole Harbour!  Saint John West--Charlotte!

https://goo.gl/6UMkjz

[Krago]

Anyway, I've updated my map with 32 proposed federal ridings in Atlantic Canada.

Bonavista--Burin--Avalon!  Truro--Cole Harbour!  Saint John West--Charlotte!

https://goo.gl/6UMkjz

Now with 28 proposed ridings in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

Saskatoon North--Warman!  Regina South!  Others!

[Krago]

Still working on Alberta, but here are where the five 'new' seats would go:

• Airdrie-Chestermere
• Calgary East
• Calgary North
• St. Albert-Edmonton would split into St. Albert and Edmonton Northwest
• Edmonton-Wetaskiwin would split into Leduc-Wetaskiwin and Edmonton South

Overall, the ridings would be allocated:

- Calgary 12 (entirely within city limits) - avg 121,000
- Edmonton 9 (entirely within city limits) - avg 121,000
- Miscellaneous 18 - avg 117,000

[Krago]

Alberta is now up.   https://goo.gl/6UMkjz

A few points:

- Every riding is within 5% of the provincial average.  Suck it Ontario!

- Yeah, I know about Vegreville.  Stuff happens.  I guess Battle River-Crowfoot's recruitment slogan ("Come live where the lead singer of Nickelback grew up!") hasn't taken off.  Yet.

- For the most part, the new riding names are rather boring (Edmonton Northwest, Edmonton South, Calgary North, Airdrie-Chestermere).  However, I chose Woodlands instead of Whitecourt (after Westlock's removal from the seat), since the revised Peace River riding does have a lot of trees.  Since Griesbach is no longer in the riding, I came up with Edmonton Commonwealth as a counterpoint to Calgary Confederation.  Finally, I waffled between resurrecting "Rocky Mountain" or "Wild Rose" for the Banff-Cochrane-Sundre-Rocky Mountain House riding.

[Krago]

Red Deer has approx. 113,000 people while the rest of Lacombe-Mountain View has 123,000.  Just find 5,000 people hiding in the Red Deer suburbs and you have yourself a Viable Electoral District.

[Krago]

(1) Sackville/Halifax is now balanced.

(2) Red Deer is now reunified.

(3) Edmonton-Mill Woods is now 20% more Mill Woods-y.


Enjoy your Labour Day weekend.



Any opinions on Wild Rose vs. Rocky Mountain?

[Krago]

DC is right, the Truro-Cole Harbour riding is awkward.

This makes me wonder how the committee will actually address this after the 2021 census. Southern mainland NS will be fine as is, but Cape Breton/northern mainland already didn't have the population to justify their seats in 2016 census and Halifax will probably be entitled to something like 4.75 or 4.8 seats. They'll probably have to make another Halifax based seat with a bit of rural NS tacked on (as opposed to making four Halifax seats and tacking the remainder onto various rural ridings like they did the last two times.) It's probably going to look awkward as hell.

DC is right, the Truro-Cole Harbour riding is awkward. Why not extend the Cape Breton riding west to New Glasgow, add Musquodoboit Valley to the Cumberland-Colechester riding and have a Cole Harbour/Eastern Shore based riding?

How would you split Pictou County? All those little towns near New Glasgow all blend together to form one small metro area... and that's the bulk of the county's population. Splitting them wouldn't go over well.

Here are the seat entitlements for each Nova Scotia county.  If an area has 87,200 people (2021 Projection), then it would be 'entitled' to have one Member of Parliament.

1.10 - Cape Breton
0.08 - Victoria
0.19 - Inverness
0.10 - Richmond
0.08 - Guysborough
0.22 - Antigonish
0.50 - Pictou
0.34 - Cumberland
0.59 - Colchester
5.09 - Halifax
0.49 - Hants
0.70 - Kings
0.24 - Annapolis
0.19 - Digby
0.27 - Yarmouth
0.15 - Shelburne
0.12 - Queens
0.54 - Lunenburg


And here's the breakdown by current FED.  Since none of the eleven Nova Scotia ridings are outside the 25% threshold, you could get away with the status quo.

0.81 - Sydney--Victoria
0.80 - Cape Breton--Canso
0.84 - Central Nova
0.92 - Cumberland--Colchester
1.16 - Dartmouth--Cole Harbour
1.09 - Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook
1.22 - Halifax West
1.20 - Halifax
0.96 - Kings--Hants
0.93 - West Nova
1.07 - South Shore--St. Margarets

[Krago]

Okay, I have some comments/suggestions for Alberta in no particular order:

• I'd recommend maintaining the current southern boundary of Calgary Forest Lawn (26 Ave to the CN Rail track, then 17 Ave to the city boundary) instead of going along 17 Ave for the entire distance. Putting the boundary where the proposal does would mean that the namesake area of the riding, Fort Lawn, would be split between two ridings.

If I needed to swap an area from Forest Lawn to Shepard to balance the populations, would you recommend Mayland Heights or Applewood Park?

[Krago]

I've updated my map with 21 alternative federal ridings in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, as well as several changes in Alberta.

https://goo.gl/6UMkjz


For NB and NS, all alternative seats are within 10% of the provincial average.  Saint John is put back together, and the Fish-and-Chips seat (Carleton-Charlotte) has returned.  I also put 5 ridings entirely within Halifax (City?) (County?) (Metro?), and let the dominoes fall along the shoreline.

For Alberta, there are three new riding names (Airdrie-Chestermere, Calgary Northern Hills, Edmonton Jasper Place).  I also moved around a few Calgary communities to give Calgary Centre and Calgary Forest Lawn better boundaries.

[Krago]

An alternative Alberta map is up.

- Vegreville is back in Lakeland
- Devon and Beaumont are in a riding with Leduc
- Edmonton now has two rurban seats

P.S. And yes, I added the national park to Edmonton--Elk Island, just so that I wouldn't have to call it Edmonton--Cooking Lake

[Krago]

What would you say to a St. Albert--Fort Saskatchewan riding?

https://goo.gl/6UMkjz


This should please Hatman--Sunshine Coast--Sea-to-Sky Country.

All the ridings are within the 5% threshold, and I love the name Sherwood Park-Evergreen (Evergreen is a 'manufactured home community' i.e. trailer park).

[Krago]

Here was my attempt (from Page 1) to make Nova Scotia's electoral map pass constitutional muster in time for the 2017 provincial election.

https://goo.gl/Eg0c6g

- the four protected ridings (Argyle, Clare, Preston, Richmond) would return to their previous boundaries

- two seats would be added to the Nova Scotia legislature:

    - the two ridings in SW NS (Clare-Digby, Annapolis) would be split into three (Clare, Digby-Annapolis West, Annapolis East)

    - the three ridings in SE NS (Argyle-Barrington, Queens-Shelburne, Lunenburg West) would be split into four (Argyle, Shelburne-Barrington, Queens-Lunenburg West, Lunenburg Centre) - to match the new names, Lunenburg riding would be renamed Lunenburg East

- there would be several changes to other districts, to make sure all the remaining ridings are within plus or minus 25% of the new provincial quotient (13,573, using the electors from the 2013 provincial election)


I will have to get a dataset of the 2018 electors to revise my map.  Any guesses if the Commission will provide it?

[Krago]

From a local's POV I can see a lot of community of interest issues, but I don't know a lot about map making per se. Also I can kind of buy having somewhat smaller seats to represent minorities, but Cheticamp is a rotten borough straight out of the 18th century... If they had made a Cheticamp seat last time, my riding would be nearly nine times the population right now!

At first I thought that the Cheticamp area was shown separately to open a debate on whether it should continue to be a part of Inverness, or else added to Richmond to make a non-contiguous Acadian seat in Cape Breton.  But it looks like the only two options are to join Richmond or become its own separate riding.

The website says:

The Commission is seeking input from the public on the following proposals:
 
1. to restore the seats of Clare, Argyle, Preston, and Richmond, as was recommended in the Interim Report of the previous Commission, 2011–12
 
2. in addition to 1 above, to make Chéticamp and environs part of the restored Richmond electoral district

or

3. in place of 2, to make Chéticamp and environs an extraordinary electoral district
 
4. to create additional Electoral Districts in Bedford and Cole Harbour
 
5. to obtain public input on the creation of a Members-at-Large group to provide for effective representation and voter parity

[Krago]

I've finally updated my map with 78 alternative federal ridings in Quebec.

https://goo.gl/6UMkjz

Here are the highlights:
- Four ridings in Gaspésie and Bas-Saint-Laurent get squeezed into three
- A new seat pops up in Mascouche
- 72 out of the 78 seats are within 10% of the provincial average, with one just over (+10.2%)
- Five northern/Saguenay seats between -10% and -20%
- 34 ridings remain unchanged
- Newly renamed Sheffield-Acton would be the most triangular electoral district in Canada, though Montmorency-Charlevoix would be close

[Krago]

I've also updated my map with 42 alternative federal ridings in British Columbia.

https://goo.gl/6UMkjz

Here are the highlights:
- 36 out of the 42 seats are within 10% of the provincial average
- three ridings are just over (+10.01%, +10.04%, +11.8%)
- Three northern-ish seats are between -10% and -20%
- 32 ridings remain unchanged