Canadian Redistribution - Provincial and Municipal

[Krago]

Has anyone heard about a boundaries commission publishing sample maps before its initial report?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-electoral-boundaries-population-1.3997529

https://www.electoralboundaries.pe.ca/sample-maps

[Krago]

A bit off topic, but here's my plan to redraw the ward boundaries in my hometown - Guelph - using the 2016 Census figures.

City Council has already finalized the boundaries for the 2018 municipal election.

[Krago]

Here’s my tale of woe.

A month ago, I sent my lovely proposed PEI map to the Electoral Boundaries Commission.  I got back a nice e-mail from the Director of Communications, who thanked me for my work.  He mentioned that the Commission used provincial electors, not Census population counts, to do their maps, and said that he would love to see my map again based on 3,700 electors per riding.

So I asked him for the shapefiles of the provincial polling divisions from the 2015 general election.  He sent me a screen print of a district map with the number of electors per district.

I asked again for the shapefiles.  He said that he wasn’t authorized to do that, but sent me shapefiles from the 2003 general election that used completely different district boundaries.

I asked again for the shapefiles.  He ignored me for three weeks.

I finally tracked down the GIS guy from the PEI Dept. of Finance who sent me the correct shapefiles in about ten minutes.  So I went back to the Communications weasel and asked for the file of electors by polling division (so that I could attach them to the map).  He sent me the same screen print from a month before.

I realized that he would never give me the data I needed to calculate the number of electors per proposed riding on my map.  So I sent him the shapefiles for my proposed map and asked him for pass it along to their GIS technicians to calculate the numbers for me.  No response so far.


This would be a pretty typical example of dealing with petty bureaucracy except for one thing: this is the FIFTH time I’ve had to deal with this sh**t with a Boundaries Commission (or equivalent).  It seems that every time a province or city decides to change their ridings or wards and not use publicly-available Census figures, it is impossible to pry the raw numbers out of them.

•   When Alberta redrew its electoral divisions in 2010, the Commission decided to use 2009 municipal census data, rather than the 2006 Census population figures.  I requested the new data for my proposals and was informed that confidentiality agreements prohibited them from sharing the data with the general public.

•   A couple of years ago, Toronto decided to revised its ward boundaries and used 2026 projections as its population base.  When I contacted the Consultants, they referred me to the City.  A staffer in the Clerk’s office told me that the data was ‘preliminary’ and that the ‘final’ data would be released to the public a year later – after the ward review was completed.

•   Hamilton has spent the past year updating its ward boundaries.  It chose to use 2015 population estimates and 2026 projections that ‘Reflects permanent population including Census undercount of approximately 3.8% as well as non-permanent post-secondary student population.’  When I contacted City Hall for those numbers, I was given irrelevant information, then bounced between departments, and then finally ignored.

•   The new Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission has decided to use 2016 Census population figures for the most part.  However, it also includes an estimated count (not stated) for the unenumerated Saddle Lake reserve and reflects a population drop of 9,180 in Fort McMurray ‘based on a further Statistics Canada census conducted in the autumn of 2016.’  I emailed Statistics Canada and they didn’t know anything about this new census; they stood by their original May numbers.


If this was the United States, there would be phalanxes of lawyers ready to litigate every decimal point.  But since this is Canada, nobody cares.  I don’t have any proposed legislation in my back pocket.  I just wanted to vent.

A fellow geopsephologist with a similar story can be found here: http://labradore.blogspot.ca/2012/09/your-right-to-no.html

[Krago]

The Consultants hired to draw Oshawa's ward boundaries released their proposed maps today, only a couple of hours before a public hearing scheduled to discuss them!

Here is the report.

And here is my favourite map:

[Krago]

I love this page!  https://www.electoralboundaries.pe.ca/new-electoral-map?platform=hootsuite

It has one of those before/after sliders (I don't know the technical term) so that you can compare the old boundaries with the new ones.  The problem is that the position of the province and the insets are completely different in the two versions, so you can't do an actual comparison.  What genius came up with that?

Also, the populations of the existing districts on page 8 of the report adds to 99,837 but the populations of the proposed districts (on page 21) adds to 100,005.  Sample map 1.1 has populations that add to 99,955, while sample map 3.1 adds to 99,904.

[Krago]

Thanks to Jared Phillips‏ @jaredphi

An easier way to explore the interim report's districts:

http://bit.ly/2rmDZBN

[Krago]

I never liked the name Windsor-Sandwich.

You're dissin' my 'hood!  Are you one of those Walkerville snobs?

[Krago]

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission in Ontario was announced on May 8.  They are required to issue their report by August 1, and the government must introduce legislation by October 30.

Here are some sample maps prepared by the Commission.

[Krago]

With 12 days to spare, I have completed the revisions to my Alberta Google map.

https://goo.gl/DcCPF0


I have grafted the Commission's northern divisions onto my earlier proposal, and squeezed a seat out of the Calgary area.  I've borrowed heavily from (stole) most of Fmr. Assemblyman Njall's Calgary map and rejigged the seats in Rocky View.  I think the MLAs will like this map much better than the one put out by the Commission a few weeks ago.

I will be submitting this in a few days, so please let me know what changes I should make.

My numbers are based on Dissemination Block data, so they may not match those of the Commission or Njall.  There are a few dozen DBs that are split by my revised boundaries.

[Krago]

Your comments smell like Polygrip and cat pee.  My map smells nice and is pretty.


Nevertheless and notwithstanding, I have revised my revised map to include some your better suggestions.


https://goo.gl/DcCPF0


I have eliminated the two Edmonton seats that crossed the North Saskatchewan River, and renamed all the SW Edmonton divisions after the Famous Five.  Also, the four seats between Fort Saskatchewan and Lloydminster have been shifted clockwise, to get rid of the elongated ridings that troubled you so.  Sherwood Park has been returned to its current boundaries, and I've renamed the Banff seat as 'Banff-Sheep River' for reasons.

I have left the seven northern divisions as God and the Commission had intended.  As for the others, it's a numbers game.  If you can find a way to account for the 'ripple effect' of some of your proposed changes, I would be happy to consider them.
 

[Krago]

Don't forget Calgary-McCall, Edmonton-Calder, Edmonton-Manning and Central Peace-Notley.  They can be replaced by Calgary-Airport, Edmonton-Off Leash Site, Edmonton-Institution and Central Peace-Unpaved Access Road.

And St. Albert, Ste. Anne and St. Paul look pretty suspicious too. 

[Krago]

Speaking of communities of interest, Krago: one recommendation that I forgot to make yesterday was to mirror the Commission's proposal to join all four of the Maskwacis Cree reserves into the riding of Wetaskiwin-Camrose. Currently, the reserves are split between Wetaskiwin-Camrose and Lacombe-Ponoka, even though the reserves are right next to each other, and splitting them as is currently done makes the former riding non-contiguous.

Done.

[Krago]

Here is the final (ha!) revision to my Alberta map.


https://goo.gl/DcCPF0


I have rejigged the Edmonton seats north of the River to follow community boundaries more closely and to look better on a map.  Let me know if these lines receive the Hatman and Njall Official Seal of Approval.

[Krago]

I have upgraded my proposal to make some improvements in Central Alberta.

https://goo.gl/DcCPF0

The highlights are:
- Red Deer contains two divisions entirely within the city limits
- Sylvan Lake is returned to the renamed Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
- Sundre rejoins the renamed Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre
- Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills regains Carbon, Beiseker and Irricana
- the boundary through Airdrie now follows Highway 2
- Lacombe-Ponoka loses some territory near Gull Lake and a chunk of Wetaskiwin County, and gains the area along Highway 21 from Bashaw north to Duhamel
- Battle River-Vegreville and Drumheller-Stettler both become smaller in area and population

[Krago]

Here is my new Calgary proposal, using the Commission's proposal as a starting point and working from there: http://goo.gl/9aps2w.

Primarily, I was attempting to fix as many community splits as possible, as well as making sure no riding was bisected by Deerfoot Trail in North Calgary (the presence of a major expressway with wide swaths of industrial area on both sides means that ridings shouldn't cross the boundary, if possible, in my opinion).

As I've previously written here, the commission's interim report made me realize that the biggest weakness of my previous map was that several suburban ridings, particularly in the north, already had above-average populations. This would mean that after 10 years of further growth in the city, populations in these ridings would be really off-balance (much the same as the current Calgary-South East riding, which essentially grew to be twice the provincial median population since the 2009/10 Commission).

As a result of this, you may notice two funky-looking riding boundaries in North Calgary. The first, between Calgary-Beddington and Calgary-Panorama Hills, actually looks that way because it adheres to existing community boundaries. A minority part of Hidden Valley is located east of Beddington Trail, and this is rejoined with the rest of Hidden Valley in Calgary-Beddington. The community of Country Hills Village (north of Country Hills Blvd between Harvest Hills Blvd and Coventry Hills Blvd) is also given to Calgary-Beddington. Both of these changes are done to give Calgary-Panorama Hills a below-average population to account for future population growth north of Stoney Trail.

The second odd boundary, between Calgary-McCall and Calgary-Falconridge, looks that way because Martindale would need to be split in order to give the two ridings appropriate population levels. Because of how Martindale was designed, there's no logical road to use as a north-south or east-west divider, so I chose to have the boundary follow Martindale Dr and Martindale Blvd. However, it occurs to me now that a better boundary may be the C-train line that runs through the community, so I may adjust the boundary later.

Thanks for sharing.  Your map looks great.  Do you have the population figures for these ridings divisions?


P.S.  Are you preparing to give Calgary-McCall a C-section?

[Krago]

Thanks for the numbers, Njall.

Which do you prefer:

(a) leave my proposal as-is, with an urban Stony Plain-Spruce Grove seat (51,255) and a rural Parkland-Lac Ste. Anne seat (44,803); or

(b) separate the cities (towns?) into a Stony Plain-Lac Ste. Anne division (48,879) and a Spruce Grove division (47,179) ?

[Krago]

Oshawa rejected that 'pinstriped' ward proposal in favour of something sensible.

[Krago]

Here's one more alternative.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1PKUBzfLAhGXFB30TaGDH7xXprMg&usp=sharing

- Stony Plain and Spruce Grove are placed in separate divisions
- Stony Plain extends west to take in the rest of Parkland County
- Barrhead-Westlock gives up Whitecourt to West Yellowhead and adds Lac Ste. Anne County

[Krago]

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission has released their preliminary report.



What are the odds that the first MPP from Mushkegowuk will be a white francophone, and not an indigenous person?

[Krago]

The Commission should have been empowered to review provincial riding boundaries across Northern Ontario, not just the far north.  The lines haven't been touched since Mike Harris adopted the federal boundaries in 1996. 

When Bill 115 was debated two years ago, Committee members were urged to create a boundaries commission to review the Northern ridings.  Despite an eloquent presentation from one individual - accompanied by brilliant maps - the members declined to do so.

[Krago]

Gilles Bisson wants the Commission to return all the communities along Highway 11 to the Timmins riding, and make Mushkegowuk an aboriginal-majority seat.

http://www.timminspress.com/2017/07/13/bisson-urges-boundaries-commission-to-go-back-to-the-drawing-board

[Krago]

When the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario released their final report, only one seat (Kenora) was beyond the 25% range.  If this recommendation becomes law, then ten out of the 124 ridings (using 2011 Census figures) will be below the 25% threshold, and one will be above (Brantford-Brant).

Using 2016 Census figures (excluding incompletely enumerated Indian reserves), Northern Ontario would be entitled to 7 3/4 ridings out of 124.  This plan would give it 13.  It would be an interesting court challenge.

[Krago]

I have updated my proposed Alberta electoral map (long after anyone cares) to include an alternative suggestion for Grande Prairie.

https://goo.gl/DcCPF0

[Krago]

The Ontario Attorney General's office has just released the Final Report of the Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission.  Apart from Marten Falls, nothing has changed from the interim report.

[Krago]

I have updated my proposed Alberta electoral map (long after anyone cares) to include an alternative suggestion for Grande Prairie.

https://goo.gl/DcCPF0

And now, an alternative suggestion for Rocky View.