I think Obama will squeak by Romney, largely due to GOP apathy in states like Virginia, NC, and possibly Georgia.
With the GOP having nominated four straight fiscal moderates (Dole, Bush, McCain, Romney), I think 2016 will probably finally be the year a hardcore fiscal con/libertarianish candidate gets the nomination. Right now I see Christie and Rand Paul as basically tied for the frontrunner status. Both are loved by the majority of the GOP base and I don't see either of them "moderating" their positions anytime soon. Jim DeMint could probably walk to the nomination (now or in 2016) if he really wanted it, but I just don't think he has his heart set on being President.
People who think the GOP will begin to moderate and go with someone like Huntsman or Thune are either deluding themselves, or are out of touch with typical GOP primary voters. This is especially true if Obama wins a second term and the economy continues to stagnate.
And after the Bush years, I see the GOP currently running away from a hawkish foreign policy as fast as possible. They won't denounce Iraq or Afghanistan simply because Bush started it, but any new situation that arises from Libya onwards will probably have the GOP sliding to the non-interventionist side. That doesn't bode well for neocons like Rubio who would otherwise be solid prospects.
Maybe I'm just hopeful, but I see the neocon and evangelical influence in the GOP sliding for the foreseeable future while economic liberalism (and I mean this in the classical sense of the word) is accelerating in importance among GOPers. Bush's TARP bailout was what triggered all this movement.
Mike Lee and Rand Paul type conservatives seem to be much better positioned to capitalize on the future direction of the party. (And I will do everything I can to push it that way
) And public union bashing won't be going out of style anytime soon.
