MissouriStunner
Rookie
Posts: 15
|
 |
« on: July 23, 2004, 08:57:46 AM » |
|
|
« edited: July 23, 2004, 08:59:36 AM by MissouriStunner »
|
According to the American Research Group, Kerry leads Bush 47-45 in New Hampshire.
New Hampshire now along with West Virginia and Florida remain the only states that have swung to the other party. The worrying aspect for the President is that the democratic party are no-longer just defending the Gore won states but are now grabbing Bush states. The next targets remain Nevada, Arkansas and Virginia. Virginia is a long shot but a democrat win in Arkansas or Nevada will mean that if Kerry wins all the Gore states he can afford to lose Florida, Ohio and Missouri. If Kerry wins all Gore states and wins NH and WV it will be a tie with defeats in Ohio, Florida and Missouri.
The Bush campaign has spent most money in Ohio and Missouri. Bush is leading at present and will likely win but Bush is trying to make ground around the great lakes. Kerry has hardly campaigned in Wisconsin and Minnesota yet the polls suggest that Bush has failed to penetrate ground. Wisconsin does have a high number of Christian Right Conservatives but 12% of the population are ex-veterans that are behind Kerry. Hence the reasons why democrats have campaigned hard in Fairfax County, Virginia.
Defeat looks more likely for Bush than it does for Kerry. Momentum is vital in politics and the democrats have it. Most Republicans believe firmly that Bush will be re-elected. But a few months ago only 1/4 of democrats thought Kerry would win. Now Democrats can see light at the end of the tunnel and realise that Bush HAS TO WIN MISSOURI AND OHIO.
Kerry with record funds and with the help of other organistaions are spending millions ensuring that Bush has to plow most op his money into his territory. The consequences are severe at the moment. Bush is holding ground in Ohio and Missouri but is losing in Florida, West Virginia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Arkansas and now New Hampshire. Bush has to change tactics.
|
