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Author Topic: Dave's Redistricting App  (Read 312339 times)
morgieb
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,641
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

« on: September 07, 2012, 10:50:34 PM »

I made some maps without taking into account partisanship or the VRA.

Alabama....



AL-01 (blue) (Mobile and South Alabama) - R+16 (safe Republican) - 68% white, 26% black.

Bonner should win easily here as always.

AL-02 (green) (Montgomery, East Black Belt) - R+5 (toss-up/leans Republican) - 54% white, 40% black.

If Bobby Bright wanted a political comeback, he should win easy here. Even if not, a Blue Dog style Dem would have a good shot here. Roby gets screwed.

AL-03 (magenta) (West Black Belt) - R+11 (toss-up/leans Republican) - 60% white, 35% black. [new district]

This district is basically tied at the local level, so a good Blue Dog Dem would win here. Also, there is no real Republican incumbent.

AL-04 (red) (Birmingham) - R+2 (toss-up/leans Democrat) - 53% white, 40% black. [new district]

Obama actually won here, so automatically it becomes good for the Dems. Terri Sewell would probably run here, though the Dems would have a better shot with a Blue Dog. Republicans would no doubt get Bacchus to try and run here.

AL-05 (yellow) (Birmingham exurbs, east Alabama) - R+25 (safe Republican) - 76.5% white, 17% black [new district]

Umm...yeah. However, this sets Bacchus and Rogers up for a grudge match, so it wouldn't be a yawner exactly.

AL-06 (teal) (North Alabama) - R+29 (safe Republican) - 86% white [old AL-04]

Even safer Republican than AL-05, though less so on a local level (but still heavily R).

AL-07 (grey) (North Alabama, Huntsville) - R+14 (leans Republican) - 72% white, 18% black [old AL-05]

Solid for Brooks, but still winnable with the right Dem.

In a good year, this could be a 4-3 Dem advantage. In a bad year, however, Republicans could win all districts here.
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