all you can say if that result did come to pass would be that three and four way marginals would become the norm, tactical voting would become impossible and there would be loads of fluke winners (and Onasyana/O'Mara style flameouts in the ensuing parliament) and high profile losses from both Labour and the Tories.
Agree that it would be far worse for the Tories than Labour though, because the former would have no real safe regions to fall back on - even blue counties like Surrey would collapse.
Would Corbyn lose if Labour got 19% and the Lib Dems 24%?
From Flavible Politics, inputting the data from the poll, Islington North would look like this
Labour: 32%
Brexit: 26%
Lib Dem: 22%
Green: 9%
CUK: 8%
Conservatives: 3%
As a bonus, here's Maidenhead as well (May's seat)
Conservative: 30%
Lib Dem: 29%
Brexit: 26%
Green: 6%
Labour: 6%
CUK: 1%
UKIP: 1%
Of course, take all of this with a huge amount of caution as models do break down with these huge swings. But Theresa May would be more likely to lose her seat than Corbyn. In fact, the Tories would only get 70 seats with these numbers
Well... maybe. In Corbyn's seat, BXP wouldn't do anywhere near that well, but the LDs would do much better (extremely heavily Remain seat), so the projection is probably way off. On the other hand, in May's seat, the projection is probably about right because it's the sort of seat where both the LDs and BXP would make substantial gains roughly proportionately to the national result (narrowly Remain seat).
Yeah, it's worth noting the Leave vote was less than 26% in the Corbyn's seat, so the Brexit Party only get about 5% or something. So you can see a path for the Lib Dems if Corbyn's vote is only at 32% or something.
OTOH CrabCake's point about it being somewhat deprived is valid (I was under the impression it was wholly an urbane progressive/champagne socialist area)
On that point, Chukka's probably one CUK MP that might hang on (as well as Wollastorm)
