New South Wales State Election, 23 March 2019

[morgieb]

Can't believe a thread wasn't started yet!

This looks a very interesting election. On paper the Liberals have a pretty large lead, having won the last election by 9 points and the nature of the swing meaning that the traditional marginals are held by the Liberals on some very big margins.

But the most recent term has led to a lot of discontent amongst pretty much everyone. Firstly was WestConnex. Though the project is fairly popular citywide, it has seen a lot of local anger being directed at it because it's a big road project going through a very "champagne socialist" area. I think a lot of the hyperventilating about it is NIMBYism, though I do question the economic benefits of certain parts of the project.

Then we saw the greyhound ban. This was later reversed after a backbench revolt from the Nationals (and also losing a key byelection to the Shooters) but the damage from that as well as the council amalgamations were enough to annoy the hell out of rural voters....which while conservative tend to be quite anti-incumbent and in many cases perfectly happy to vote for a good Independent.

Then there's the stadium rebuilds. Essentially what is going on here is that the sporting stadiums in New South Wales are in a pretty ordinary state in terms of purpose, facilities, etc. and all funding towards it is done by state governments. However instead of redeveloping the stadiums to get them up to scratch (which would probably only cost like $100-200m, or at least it should....) they are rebuilding them from scratch, which costs about $2 billion. Worse for the Liberals this is effective ammunition for Labor to talk about government waste, and how it is not going towards schools and hospitals and the like. The Liberals have flip-flopped hard on this one, but because of Alan Jones's influence the time since the Sydney Football Stadium has been last redeveloped they are still going forward there. Labor are either proposing to stop demolition if it hasn't already been demolished, or alternatively force the SCGT to rebuild it if it's already been demolished.

We also have issues with Sydney's entertainment. Essentially a few years ago there were a number of one-punch attacks which led to serious injury or death and the then O'Farrell government proposed lockout laws (so venues close at 3am and people can no longer get into pubs/clubs that aren't the Star after 1:30am in the CBD). While this has curbed violence in the CBD only in Kings Cross has it not been matched by a rise in violence in other areas. Worse, it has also led to lots of places in Sydney going under and a general downturn in the nightlife of Sydney.

As well as this we have a few scandals with festivals. Essentially, we have seen a number of drug overdose deaths at music festivals, because of either taking tainted pills or too many to hide from cops. While the left is suggesting pill testing to let users know exactly what they are taking, the Liberals are ignoring this and going for harder regulations at festivals. This has led to a number of music festivals close down and the events themselves not being as fun as what they were.

And let's not forget the omnishambles that is the current federal government. From scandals to climate change denying to pretty much everything, they are toxic enough that it will drag down the current state government.

So yeah, this is going to be interesting. I see a hung parliament, who's in power though is a trickier question.

[morgieb]

Some last minute predictions:

Sydney:

* East Hills looked an automatic flip early doors, but it appears the Liberals made a sharp candidate choice. As well as that the general lack of swing in Sydney and some demographic change here means that the Liberals seem optimistic here. I still think an open seat that marginal is basically an automatic flip, but we'll see. Labor gain but without any optimism.
* Coogee is probably gone, however. The Liberals have been struggling in similar areas throughout the country and the light rail fiasco has to be biting. Maybe the Liberals could hold on if Labor get an ordinary run with Greens preferences, but that seems a bit doubtful.
* Penrith could go either way, but I suspect the Liberals barely hang on. Close though.
* Heathcote looks close, but I'm not quite sure there's enough room to move for Labor to flip it.
* Oatley doesn't seem too likely. Coure is reasonably popular, the seat's margin is more like what it 'should' be (in contrast to a few other seats) and the "Asians with PhD's" scandal will bite hard here.
* Holsworthy, Seven Hills, Parramatta, Mulgoa, Riverstone, Ryde - all potentially marginal but probably not happening this time around. There's room for a swing though and if Labor win a majority (or go close to it) at least the first couple will flip.
* Camden is an open seat that has been held by Labor recently, but it's not happening this time around. Perhaps there'll be a swing, though.

Every other Sydney Liberal seat looks safe.

* Strathfield would be a worry if the scandal hits Labor's vote. I still think Labor hold given the double sophmore surge but this could easily be a 'cold sick' loss if Labor underperform.
* Kogarah might see a reverse swing but a seat that Labor hold on 7% isn't flipping in this election.
* Prospect will not be close this time around.
* Granville OTOH might be. Issa still has a decent reputation here which could keep the swing down despite it being a natural Labor seat.

Every other Sydney Labor seat looks safe.

Non-Sydney

* Lismore is gone. The popular sitting MP is retiring, the swing is on outside of Sydney and Labor picked an excellent candidate. I suppose the CSG factor had an impact on the swing here last year, but even then this seat is a Labor one federally.
* Upper Hunter looks a probable flip, the only question is whether there's much more of a swing left given it's a traditional Nationals area. SFF could be a factor too, though probably not actually winning the seat.
* I actually think the Nats hang onto Monaro. It will be close but Barilaro's higher profile will help in an incumbent-friendly area and Labor no longer have Steve Whan's personal vote to rely on.
* Tweed probably flips too, though it'll be close.
* Goulburn is 50/50. Ultimately I don't quite think there's enough room for a swing, but it being an open seat can't be optimistic for the Liberals.
* Bega again looks close. Unlike a few regional seats Labor have room to move here too. Probably not quite a flip though.
* Kiama looks surprisingly safe. Credit to Ward for holding onto quite a marginal seat so easily.
* Bathurst is apparently close for such a safe seat on paper, but Labor have a lot of room to move here unlike most regional seats. Nats are probably safe enough though.
* Murray is a National/SFF race. Ultimately I doubt the SFF can pick up a seat they didn't win in a by-election in the general election, but we'll see.
* Barwon OTOH looks very ripe for a flip. Given it's an open seat I expect the SFF to pick it up.
* Orange was barely won by the SFF in the by-election. Will be interesting but I favour incumbency to help the SFF here.
* Wagga Wagga should stay Independent. McGirr won easily in the by-election and is popular.
* Coffs Harbour is interesting. Open seat and a strong Independent challenge. Probable National hold though, the new Nats candidate is an impressive one apparently.
* Clarence would usually be safe National, but the previous MP is recontesting as an SFF candidate. I think the Nats hold but the SFF percentage will be interesting to see.
* Dubbo has a strong Independent challenge, but I'd probably marginally favour the Nats here.

I think the others are "probably" safe, but we'll see.

Non-Sydney Labor seats:

* The Entrance is close, but I'd probably favour Labor here.
* Gosford doesn't seem too close, the local MP is popular and won the by-election here easily.
* Port Stephens margin looks a bit friendly for Labor, but it's unlikely a 5% seat in 2015 will flip in this climate.

Rest are safe I suspect.