I'll keep it as Likely R for now, but I strongly doubt Bollier can run 10+ points ahead of Biden given Marshall is a strong candidate who's within the realms of normalcy.
Who says Marshall is a strong candidate? His fundraising was also very lackluster.
He's a generic and inoffensive, and that really should be enough. He's not exceptionally strong, but he's also not actively terrible like Kobach.
He also ran a strong enough campaign to roll Kobach in the first place; if he was a weak candidate he likely loses the primary.