Well, let's talk about the 2018 senate elections

[morgieb]

It's basically impossible for the Democrats to pick up the Senate unless a massive upset happens in Louisiana - only really two seats that we don't already have we can realistically pick up. Worse, there's 5 seats that Romney won that the Democrats need to play defence in.

Current views, assuming that Trump becomes an unpopular hot mess and causes a blue wave in 2018:

Indiana and Missouri look very tough hold even in a blue wave, both Donnelly and McCaskill won largely because of very flawed candidates and both states trended heavily Republican from ones that were basically line ball in 2008. I'm more confident in McCaskill as she won by more in 2012 and Kander pushed Blunt hard (in contrast Bayh fizzled out hard). Still they aren't any better than a toss-up AFAIC. All comes down to the sort of the campaign the Democrats run in 2018.

For Manchin, to survive he probably needed Justice and Trump to win, and what do you know, both happened. Add that it's a very economically depressed place that I can imagine being very anti-incumbent, and I think he may have a slight advantage, though perhaps not if the Republicans find the right candidate. He might defect to the Republicans I guess, but that might give him some primary strife unless he's certain he cannot win as a Democrat, and in any case he's not that right-wing.

Montana and North Dakota are interesting, but again I feel like Tester and Heitkamp are favourites there. They both have a fair grasp of the electorate of their states and I imagine retail politics works better than than in larger states. So assuming they haven't rejected the Democrats wholesale (and Bullock's win suggest they haven't) they'll probably hold unless the Republicans find top-tier candidates.

Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all trended right hard in this election, but only in Ohio do I imagine the Democrats having a tough time. In Ohio Sherrod Brown's win in 2012 was very narrow and that was with the Democrats putting a sh**tload of money there, and with a not super amazing Republican candidate. Still I think he holds on unless the Republicans find a top-tier candidate, and in that case the waters may be sullied by the governor's race. Wisconsin will be toughly fought but I suspect anti-Trump and anti-Walker setiment should mean that Baldwin holds on. Pennsylvania and Michigan though shouldn't be too much of a fight; although Casey's victory margin was underwhleming in 2012 that was with a very lazy campaign - unless the Republicans can find a very strong candidate he shouldn't fall too much further, and in any case he'll probably run a harder campaign if the Republicans do find a tip-top candidate. It could get interesting if Wolf was to retire and Casey runs for Governor I guess (as has been rumoured by some). Michigan won't be close if 2014 was any sign, and assuming Stabenow runs again she'll get a free pass anyway.

Maine is comparable to that Midwest quartet, as is Minnesota, although unlike those states they actually voted Democrat, if barely. But both have popular incumbents who will probably avoid strong recruitment. Maine might be interesting if King was to retire I guess.

Florida will always be swingy, but unless Nelson retires (and I think he announced he was running again?) Democrats should be fine here - like in Ohio I think most of the best Republican candidates run for the Governorship.

Virginia is only becoming more Democratic, and Kaine seems reasonably inoffensive. He ought to be fine. Similarly, I guess in New Jersey Menendez could be vulnerable in the right circumstances, but I doubt these will exist in 2018, so he'll be fine.

The rest of the Democratic seats should be safe no matter what.

For the Republicans, they're probably underdogs in Nevada - Nevada held up well for the Democrats in the last election and I can't imagine Trump having much popularity. Add that Heller only really held on here because of a toxic Democratic candidate and unless there's a major recruiting failure here he'll have the fight of his life on his hands. Arizona's probably safer but Flake will probably get a primary challenge and therefore we might see an unpalatable Republican candidate.

The other states should be fine for Team R. Utah might get interesting if Matheson was to run I guess, but that probably requires a retirement and the primary coughing up a weak Republican candidate. Cruz might be in primary trouble in Texas, but it's hard to think of a strong enough Democrat to win the state even if he does get wounded in the primary. The rest are out of reach barring something very weird happening.