Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[morgieb]

South Australia

Barker - the main story in South Australia is the NXT and how well they do. Personally if Xenophon's off the ballot they'll slide, but I still see them polling 15-20% in the HOR. As it stands they could be anywhere between picking up 1 seat at best or making South Australia a proper 3-party state. Also preferences will be interesting because of the split ticket thing - I wonder if Labor and the Liberals hand out HTV's preferencing each other rather than the NXT. As for Barker, it looks safe but Labor's vote is low enough that the NXT should ambush here. I'll predict a Liberal hold but it's probably the NXT's 3rd best chance of picking up a seat.

Grey - interesting. On paper I think Labor's core vote in places like Whyalla and Port Augusta is a bit too rusted on to swing, and the rural territory that squashes the votes in those places is too strong. And the NXT's vote in rural areas looks weaker than what it is in Adelaide. Yet polls show them competitive here. I think the Liberals still win, but an upset is possible. Wonder also what swing Labor get on a 2PP basis if the NXT are polling well here.....

Mayo - a safe Liberal seat on paper, but this was one of the best Democrat areas when they were relevant, and it's safe to assume that the old Democrats strength will convert to NXT strength. Add that Jamie Briggs has been scandal-prone, and I'm calling this an NXT gain.

Sturt - I'd love to see Pyne lose. I think most people would. But all signs point to him holding up well in his district. If the NXT finished 2nd it could get interesting especially given that I struggle to see him getting a lot of preferences, but I think he'll be OK.

Boothby - tricky. On paper this looks fertile for the NXT - it's an open seat and a fairly middle-class one where Xenophon should have some appeal. But do they get enough where Labor and Liberal are likely to poll OK? I'm not so sure so I'll stick with a Liberal hold. Nevertheless, this is the NXT's second best chance at a seat and if they poll above average I think they pick this up.

Hindmarsh - tough to gauge. Looks good for the NXT on the surface, but it's probably too marginal on a Labor/Liberal basis than what the NXT would hope for. But even as a Labor/Liberal contest it looks interesting. Very close, but I think the Liberals may just have the edge here as Labor apparently aren't doing so great in SA.

Wakefield - a Labor seat that looks even safer in practice than what it is on paper due to large swathes of rural territory being mixed in with Labor voting areas. For this reason I don't see the NXT having a huge impact here.

Adelaide - this however looks more interesting, there is some talk that Labor are struggling here. I don't quite believe it but Labor's vote held up here pretty well in 2013, Turnbull may more appeal in urban areas than Abbott did and the NXT factor could make it interesting...

Makin - although a marginal seat in theory, Zappia has made this look secure. Maybe NXT has appeal here but I suspect the core Liberal vote might be a bit too high.

Kingston - essentially read what I wrote with Makin. Kingston is even safer though, so it makes it more possible for the NXT to take second and make it interesting. Labor should still hold.

Port Adelaide - very safe for Labor. It's not a great area for the NXT so while they may finish 2nd I doubt unless it's a very good night for them they'll endanger Labor's hold here.

So the NXT pick up Mayo. Could pick up a lot more but I'm not convinced they will, given there are signs that the tide is receding a bit.


Senate predictions are 4 Labor, 4 Liberal, 3 NXT and 1 Green. Tough. Labor, Liberal and the NXT should all hit 3 quotas. Greens should also get a quota. I'll say Labor and Liberal have slightly higher votes than the NXT so they gain the 4th quotas, but it will be interesting. Family First probably not without a shot either.

[morgieb]

Other states

Bass - interesting. Always a competitive seat, but incumbency will help the Liberals and Nikolic has done more to get his name out there than the other two Tassie Liberal incumbents. Labor's vote also doesn't appear to have quite returned to 2007/10 levels. So I'll say the Liberals hold.

Braddon - this along with Lyons show the difference between Tasmania and the mainland - you'd expect the Coalition to win seats like these on the mainland but in Tasmania they still (sometimes anyway) have stuck with their working-class roots. It's tough to call but given that Labor will not have Sidebottom's personal vote (important in a regional district) I'll predict a Liberal hold.

Solomon - it's usually close, but the misadventures of the CLP state government can't help the CLP here. Labor should pick it up with a big swing.

Lyons - see Braddon, but this seat is a bit more marginal and was traditionally Labor-leaning before 2013. Accordingly I think Labor re-gain the seat.

Lingiari - Labor have struggled here by their usual standards in the last two elections in part due to Abbott's appeal with the Aboriginal population and Labor issues in said areas. This time around with the CLP tanking, Labor should get a big swing here.

Franklin - if Labor didn't lose this in 2013 (although this seat behaves a bit different to the rest of Tasmania), they won't lose it in this election.

Canberra - the less safe bit of Canberra as this goes into more marginal suburbia around Tuggeranong, but it's still safe Labor

Fenner - the new name for Fraser, and is as safe for Labor as the old seat.

Denison - Wilkie should be secure here for as long as he wants.

So 1 gain for Labor in Tasmania (Lyons) and one in the Northern Territory (Solomon).


In Tasmania, I'll predict 5 Liberal, 4 Labor, 2 Greens and 1 Lambie. Jacqui Lambie should clear a quota and there is talk that she'll also have enough to get her running mate up. That I doubt, however. Labor and Liberal should clear 4 quotas and the Greens should clear 2. Last seat will probably go to the Liberals as I suspect they'll be closer to a 5th quota than Labor, given Labor's vote in Tasmania hasn't quite recovered to their peak.

The Territories should be boring - 1 Labor and 1 Liberal/CLP for both. There is a bit of talk about the Greens challenging the Liberals in the ACT, but they couldn't do it under the old Senate system and the new one makes it harder for them to win enough preferences to overtake the Liberal. The major parties in the Northern Territory will pretty much always clear a quota.

[morgieb]

So TL;DR - seat predictions and the like:

Coalition - 78 (-10 - gain Fairfax, lose Eden-Monaro, Page, Macarthur, Petrie, Capricornia, Flynn, Cowan, Burt, Solomon, Lyons, Mayo)
Labor - 67 (+10 - gain Eden-Monaro, Page, Macarthur, Petrie, Capricornia, Flynn, Cowan, Burt, Solomon, Lyons)
Greens - 1 (n/c)
Others - 4 (n/c - NXT gain Mayo, PUP lose Fairfax)

TPP:

Coalition - 50.4%
Labor - 49.6%

So narrow Coalition majority. Though I wouldn't be surprised with a whole range of results from the Coalition getting a similar result to 2013 and Labor getting a surprise majority.

Senate:

Coalition - 31
Labor - 27
Greens - 9
Nick Xenophon Team - 3
Jacqui Lambie - 1
Derryn Hinch - 1
Liberal Democrats - 1
Glenn Lazarus - 1
One Nation - 1
WA Nationals - 1

[morgieb]

Are they more or less a regional party then?

Yes. Xenophon is from SA but is unknown elsewhere.

[morgieb]

Looking at the primary votes for One Nation in rural Queensland, it's a sign that it needs to be killed with fire.

[morgieb]

My local electorate of Murray now has a +30% swing to the Nationals

Helps you didn't have a Nationals candidate in the last election

[morgieb]

Eden-Monaro flipping and Lindsay probably will too. Who the f**k will the media obsess over now assuming the Coalition holds on?

[morgieb]

What is the best source for Senate results?

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-20499-NAT.htm works.

[morgieb]

Looking at the results briefly atm it looks like a repeat of 1998 - the ALP swing was big but in all the wrong places (apart from Tasmania and a few unrepresentative places like MacArthur... what happened there?). Hopefully the LNP don't just scrap a majority with this.

As I stated in my seat previews:

"Given that the margins in both here and Werriwa are somewhat deflated due to a lack of a real campaign in the former (AFAIK) and the parachuting of Laurie Ferguson instead of a local in the latter, the fact that the state seats that make up the district had pretty solid margins for Labor in the state election, and that Labor chose (seemingly) a well-regarded local candidate, it's hard to see the Liberals holding here."

So a combo of a strong candidate, a better campaign and good results for Labor in NSW meant that Labor won here with ease.

[morgieb]

So, err, why is fish and chips lady back?

Because Queenslanders are idiots.

Look at some of the One Nation votes in the HOR!

EDIT: What's worse is that we might well see two more One Nation Senators in other states!

[morgieb]

What's worse is that we might well see two more One Nation Senators in other states!

I'm pretty confident that they'll only have one; the only two places that they have a shot in is NSW and WA; in the former they've been drifting away and will probably end up under half a quota and the count is still early in the latter.

I did say might. NSW has a lot of minor right parties getting votes that are behind One Nation and could give One Nation preferences. Early days in WA yes so it's hard to call.

[morgieb]

The ABC have put their Senate results page up

I'm listing it like this for ease; the first number are seats that are definite, the second number are seats listed as "likely" by the ABC

LNP: 26/1
ALP: 23/1
Greens: 3/3
Xenophon: 2/1
One Nation: 1/0
Lambie: 1/0
Hinch: 0/1

The last seat in NSW seems to be between the LNP and One Nation; who are 0.14 of a quota behind.  She's falling well behind in WA; she'd need most of the minor party votes to get ahead of the ALP.

Worth noting that there's also a number of seats in doubt. As things stand:

NSW: Coalition 4, Labor 4. Greens and Coalition will probably gain another seat too. Last two seats a lottery, One Nation probably have the edge for one whereas the Liberal Democrats might be the favourite for the other.

Victoria: Coalition 4, Labor 4, Greens 1. Derryn Hinch will probably gain a seat and the Greens should be favoured to gain another seat. I have no idea with the last seat.

Queensland: LNP 4, Labor 3, One Nation 1. Greens should pick up a seat, LNP and Labor are probably favoured to pick up another seat too. Last seat a lottery.

Western Australia: Liberal 4, Labor 3, Greens 1. You'd think all three of them would also gain another seat as well. On current figures I'd back One Nation for the last seat.

South Australia: Liberal 4, Labor 3, NXT 2. Labor and the NXT should gain another seat too. Greens the favourite for the last seat, though if preferences are tight I wouldn't write off Family First.

Tasmania: 4 Labor, 4 Liberal, 1 Green, 1 Lambie. I'd favour Labor and the Greens to pick up the last two seats.

ACT: Labor have one, the Liberals should gain the other.

NT: 1 Labor, 1 CLP.

[morgieb]

LOOOOOLLL... several results have now been rescinded by the ABC and it's now 67-67 with 11 uncertain.... late returns are favouring ALP.

I think what they might have done is turned off the predictive stuff they use on election night and gone back to the raw numbers that were always better for the ALP.  Earlier on they were factoring in postal votes and the like, now I think they plan on just waiting for the final results since it isn't at all clear anyway.

I still think that the LNP are in front; although a hung parliament is likely.

Yeah this is 100% correct. Usually late polling favours the Coalition.

[morgieb]

What percent chance does Shorten have of becoming the next PM?

Most of the in doubt seats were projected as Liberal gains/Liberal ahead earlier, just that the ABC turned off their predictive software and now are using the current votes. I doubt Shorten wins.

[morgieb]

How do the senate elections work?

Essentially you preference at least 6 squares above the line or 12 below the line. There are 6 (12 in this election because it's a double dissolution, usually only the half the Senate is up for election) quotas to reach per state (2 in the territories). If you get above 7.7% (IIRC) you get into the Senate. If there are quotas leftover, it'll be how you go in preferences.

[morgieb]

If Shorten gets toppled now, the ALP really needs to reform its leadership selection process.

Won't happen. Plibersek was kinda equovial about the leadership, but given how close Shorten has got he should be fine.

[morgieb]

Think the ALP getting 72 seats is highly unlikely... Postals will probably very strong for the LNP in Flynn and Capricornia, and the margin in Forde is way too tiny to withstand them either. The Liberals also have an outside chance of grabbing back Hindmarsh.

I doubt any other seat flips, although I think the NXT falls short in Grey.

Kevin Bonham says Melbourne Ports could be an interesting 3-cornered contest with potential to fall to the Liberals or possibly even the Greens, but the ALP in all likelihood has it.

I'm currently guessing Coalition 76 (a bare majority), 69 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 KAP, 1, NXT, 2 IND.

But how strong though? Labor's current 2PP vote there is 51.5%. The reason why they were so strong the last time around was because of FIFO workers, and there aren't as many of them in this election.

[morgieb]

On another note, a look at the swings so far at the election (if the swing is -%, then it swung away from the Liberals)

Burt   -14.50%
Macarthur   -12.60%
Paterson   -11.10%
Bass   -10.60%
Watson   -9.90%
Blaxland   -9.40%
Chifley   -9.00%
Brand   -8.50%
Longman   -8.40%
Solomon   -8.40%
McEwen   -8.30%
McMahon   -8.30%
Flynn   -8.10%
Kingston   -7.80%
Wakefield   -7.60%
Rankin   -7.40%
Hunter   -7.10%
Port Adelaide   -7.10%
Herbert   -6.90%
Macquarie   -6.90%
Maranoa   -6.60%
Lingiari   -6.50%
Eden-Monaro   -6.40%
Kingsford Smith   -6.30%
Parramatta   -6.00%
McMillan   -5.90%
Pearce   -5.90%
Dickson   -5.90%
Franklin   -5.90%
Wide Bay   -5.70%
Oxley   -5.70%
Calwell   -5.70%
Dobell   -5.50%
Parkes   -5.40%
Menzies   -5.40%
Holt   -5.40%
Braddon   -5.30%
Fowler   -5.30%
Dunkley   -5.20%
Cowan   -5.20%
Canning   -5.10%
Flinders   -4.90%
Makin   -4.70%
Lindsay   -4.60%
Newcastle   -4.60%
Dawson   -4.50%
Forde   -4.50%
Swan   -4.20%
Hasluck   -4.20%
Barton   -4.10%
Mitchell   -4.00%
Sturt   -3.90%
Scullin   -3.90%
Lyons   -3.70%
Blair   -3.70%
Gilmore   -3.60%
Gorton   -3.60%
Greenway   -3.50%
Hume   -3.40%
Fenner   -3.30%
Warringah   -3.20%
Boothby   -3.20%
Lilley   -3.20%
La Trobe   -3.10%
Fadden   -3.00%
Riverina   -2.90%
Stirling   -2.90%
Corio   -2.90%
Mackellar   -2.80%
Calare   -2.80%
Moreton   -2.80%
Bruce   -2.80%
Moncrieff   -2.70%
Richmond   -2.70%
Shortland   -2.70%
Fremantle   -2.60%
Bendigo   -2.50%
Sydney   -2.50%
Gellibrand   -2.50%
Berowra   -2.40%
Wright   -2.40%
Robertson   -2.40%
Groom   -2.30%
North Sydney   -2.30%
Hughes   -2.30%
Leichhardt   -2.30%
Hindmarsh   -2.20%
Mallee   -2.10%
Wentworth   -2.10%
Lalor   -2.10%
Forrest   -1.90%
Bowman   -1.90%
Casey   -1.90%
Isaacs   -1.90%
Cunningham   -1.90%
Ballarat   -1.80%
Perth   -1.70%
Whitlam   -1.70%
Banks   -1.60%
Werriwa   -1.60%
Durack   -1.50%
Lyne   -1.50%
Tangney   -1.50%
Moore   -1.50%
Wannon   -1.50%
Capricornia   -1.50%
Farrer   -1.40%
McPherson   -1.40%
Corangamite   -1.20%
Hinkler   -1.10%
Bonner   -1.10%
Jagajaga   -1.10%
Hotham   -1.10%
Maribyrnong   -1.10%
Page   -1.00%
Adelaide   -1.00%
Fairfax   -0.80%
Canberra   -0.80%
Fisher   -0.40%
Cook   -0.10%
Bradfield   0.10%
Petrie   0.30%
Ryan   0.40%
Aston   0.40%
Goldstein   0.80%
Melbourne Ports   0.80%
Griffith   1.00%
Brisbane   1.10%
Reid   1.30%
Kooyong   1.50%
Chisholm   1.60%
Bennelong   1.80%
Deakin   1.90%
Curtin   2.80%
Gippsland   2.90%

Only listed seats with a conventional Labor/Coalition 2PP vote. The rest we'll see the 2PP vote in a couple of weeks.

4 seats experienced swings of over 10%. I know what happened in Burt, Macarthur and Paterson - they were all seats affected by the redistribution. In Macarthur and Paterson they gained areas that were heavily Labor-leaning, and the booths that were kept in the district had an underlying Labor vote that was lying dormant because it was swamped by Coalition-leaning territory and Labor didn't really campaign there. Also there was a large swing in Hunter (where most of the Paterson booths came from) in 2013 and Labor's old MP for Werriwa (which Macarthur gained substantual territory from) was not a local and was therefore unpopular in the district. In Burt this was a new seat created from territory that had a strong personal vote for Don Randall, but was Labor-leaning at the state level. With him not contesting for sadly obvious reasons, it was ripe for a huge swing, especially with a general recovery in Labor fortunes in WA.

Bass on the other hand is more interesting. Especially given Lyons and Braddon didn't swing anywhere near as much and they seem more fertile territory for the ALP. Was Nikolic really that bad of a candidate?

On the other hand, two seats experienced swings of nearly 3% to the Coalition. I get why Bishop's popularity would've improved in her seat, but Gippsland is interesting. I guess the CFA thing may have had an effect here (although given the results in McEwen I'm skeptical), but what's more interesting is that neighbouring McMillan had a fairly large swing well above the state average back to the Coalition. And there was a general trend back to Labor in blue-collar areas which Gippsland had a few of.

[morgieb]

If you want more #analysis of why seats swung like they did, I'll give you a few possible reasons >_>

[morgieb]

Does Amanda Risworth stuff ballot boxes? Her margin is crazy for a seat the Libs used to hold.

lol yeah she must be made of gold.

Heard she's a very good local MP, and there's been a trend to Labor in South Australia in recent years from what I see. But even so 17% is insane.

[morgieb]

An Analysis of the seat of swan, where I live would be nice.

Interesting one, was a bit of a disappointment for Labor on the night for mine, because I felt it was gonna be marginal, but no it looks safe-ish for Irons. Looking at the booths, it looks like the swing was patchy, but it appears that Labor did better in the eastern, more swingy booths than the more solidly Liberal Western booths (there's a huge East-West divide here, the West is very much blue blood Liberal, but the rest of the seat is much more swingy). This pattern was not atypical this election, in many seats the Labor vote swung the most in the more naturally Labor-leaning areas.

Probably Anton Kreitzer might know this part of the world better than me, I'm from the other side of the country

[morgieb]

Didn't Swan have poor candidate selection too? The ALP candidate was a former Green who had never voted ALP, and called the incumbent Liberal MP (who grew up as a ward of the state) a "rich white man" during the campaign.

That makes sense as to why the swing was kinda underwhelming, did not know about that.

[morgieb]

FWIW, postals have apparently been counted in Franklin.

Interestingly, they have broken 48.3% ALP – 37.5% Lib on primar votes. In contrast, in 2013 postals broke 37.9% ALP – 43.8% Lib.

[morgieb]

Some pretty awful postal flows in Queensland - Flynn 65/35 LNP, Herbert and Longman 58/42 LNP. Could just be a bad batch, but if they continue the Liberals will probably end up gaining majority government. And the Liberal government will be far smoother sailing than what I thought earlier this week.

[morgieb]

Could just be a bad batch, but if they continue the Liberals will probably end up gaining majority government.

is there any reason to expect this? e.g. do they count the postals in the order they receive them like in the US?

It's very hard to say. I thought that yes they count them in the order they receive them, and that should mean that early postals may favour the Coalition, especially in Queensland where the last week of the campaign was held in school holidays (and uni ones), where the mix of people who request postal votes are far more diverse than usual. However, there's this to consider off a guy from the Poll Bludger.....

It’s also the case that the first postal ballots sent out would usually be to registered general postal voters, those whose situations put them in need of a postal vote at every election, and who therefore don’t have to make a specific application. How long they would take to be returned is a different question. In addition, the fact that you can now apply for a postal vote online, a very simple and straightforward process, means that some normal applications probably get their ballots almost as soon as the general postal voters. In addition, the hardcopy postal vote applications which were sent out by the LNP, but not by the ALP, would be routed back through the LNP offices, which would add a bit of time to the process. Overall, it’s a somewhat complicated situation.