morgieb
Junior Chimp
Posts: 9,660
Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70
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« on: October 09, 2014, 05:46:54 AM » |
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Safe D
California
Minnesota (up by at least 10 points, happy to safe that Dayton's safe, particularly given Minnesota's quite polarised)
New Hampshire (not sure about this but IIRC Hassan's popular and her opposition is weak)
New York
Oregon
Pennsylvania (what a f***ing failure has Corbett been. Santorum's margin is in danger)
Vermont
Likely D
Hawaii (still close on paper, but Hawaiian polls are garbage and all Ige has to do to win is say I'm a Democrat)
Maryland (Brown hasn't blown this away as one might expect)
Rhode Island (New England has this weird history of electing moderate Republicans for governor despite most other offices/legislatures/etc. being dominated by Democrats, and the polling is competitive)
Lean D
Illinois (Quinn's polling lead looks solid enough, and in any case it's hard to see someone who didn't win in 2012 win in 2013)
Tilt D
Colorado (think Hickenlooper deserves the edge for now)
Connecticut (hard to know who to believe here. Malloy was in big trouble before a week ago, now he's ahead by 8. Think he has the edge as Connecticut is still very blue, albeit less so at the gubernatorial level)
Florida (Crist starting to get a small but consistent lead. Normally I'd have this as a toss-up but it's not something I like doing this late unless it's genuinely 50/50)
Kansas (is Brownback coming back? Think the Fox/CNN polls were outliers but there is a trend in his favour)
Massachusetts (I'm honestly tempted to put this as a toss-up, but there are enough good polls to have Coakley still ahead. Want to see PPP or someone tackle this rather than one of the garbage in-state pollsters. Will she be the biggest flop of all time if she loses?)
Toss-up
Maine (have this as a toss-up because it's less obvious to predict than a lot of the Tilt races. LePage seems to be building slightly, and Cutler is showing no signs of withdrawing, although in this case he's clearly 3rd. Will be the race to watch for governor IMO)
Tilt R
Alaska (not much polling here, will lean towards the incumbent because it's Alaska, but there's no doubt our ticket is a talented one)
Georgia (chances probably aren't as good as in the Senate as Deal hasn't made any big errors, but it's still close, and there are signs that the Dems are being undersampled)
Michigan (uber-tight. Tempted to put this as a toss-up, as the Dems have strong GOTV here and Schauer will get some coattails, but for all the hype I'm pretty sure Snyder has led in 95% of the polls)
Wisconsin (GOTV could be our saving grace, as traditionally it's quite good in the Midwest. Still you'd back Walker at this stage)
Lean R
Arizona (not really sure how this goes, want more polling. Failing that, I'll take parallels from 2012, where the Democrat went close but not close enough)
Arkansas (most non-internals have Hutchinson ahead. Comparable to the Senate race in that it's competitive but you won't back the Democrat here)
Likely R
Idaho (well, Larry Sabato thought this might be a smokey. Plus apparently the RGA are going on the offence here. But you'd still back Otter, most likely the far-right will come back to him despite their grumblings)
Nebraska (apparently *some* controversies here in the Nebraskan Republican Party. We know that Ricketts is a crap candidate, whereas Hasebrook isn't terrible. But you'd still like the Pubs here)
New Mexico (I know King has had controversies, but one poll did come out showing Martinez up by an underwhelming margin. How blue is New Mexico now?)
Oklahoma (looking interesting. Dornan's internals had him within the MoE, and he's running a strong campaign. But it's probably a little too late to really threaten Fallin)
South Carolina (think Haley has done enough to hold off Sheheen reasonably comfortably)
Safe R
Alabama
Nevada (NOTA won the Democratic primary. Yeah)
Ohio (what a disaster Fitzgerald turned out to be)
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming
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