538 Model Megathread

[°Leprechaun]

I don't agree with his odds in swing states and if they are correct then Clinton has a much better chance of winning than he says she does.  Today's map agrees with the overall consensus 273-265 and if her chances are as high in states like PA, VA, CO and NH as he says they are she has more than a 58.1% chance of winning. NH is more likely to go Clinton than CO or VA and PA has a better chance than VA. I do think he's right about the overall odds, although they may be even better, unless, as could happen, Trump improves in the next few weeks,  he could even be tied or ahead, which so far hasn't happened yet. NV, FL and other states are closer to 50-50. IA an AZ should be higher. Overall he might be close, but some states are off. IA is the worst prediction although Trump may be above 50% and he could certainly win there, even though it has been pretty reliable for Dems (except, of course 2004).

edit, however all predictions are open to debate because this election is very unpredictable (IA being a good example, because Clinton could still win there). He might be right about NV being the closest, however. Clinton could surprise him. She can still win AZ, NC and IA although she would have to bounce back a little before 11/8. Trump can still win, but only in a razor thin election, at least that's how it looks now. I don't think that he'll win PA, however, as some people seem to think.

[°Leprechaun]

jaichind, yes you could be right about Trump's chances being lower than he says, based on what we know, but Silver could end up being close because of the fact that things are likely to change. However, since his model is only based on what we know today he is mistaken to give Trump such high odds overall. I think Clinton certainly has a greater than 33% chance in IA, although as I have said it could be less than 59%.

[°Leprechaun]

By the way, if the 273-265 model is correct Clinton only needs one electoral vote from Maine, and if Trump were to win all four (no way it would happen in a razor thin election) the election would be 269-269.

[°Leprechaun]

Or maybe Clinton can offset any losses in ME with one electoral vote in NE, although I doubt that that will happen. If she wins one in NE she gets all four from ME.

[°Leprechaun]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-dont-ignore-the-polls-clinton-leads-but-its-a-close-race/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

It's a close race, but she could win "bigly" in the ec because of a number of tossups like FL.