As mentioned above, Biden winning without Georgia is fairly easy. If he loses Michigan as well, then I think the other path mentioned (PA+WI+AZ+NV) is difficult, but not out of the question. Nevada seems like the toughest of the four for Biden, but a recent court ruling has paved the way for an abortion referendum on the ballot there, so that could boost his chances.
I think there is a significant chances that polls miss a Biden win in GA but he could still lose WI, PA, AZ, NV and the election even with MI and GA. Despite early polls showing him down in GA, trends are the best for Dems here in all of the swing states and the primary suggests African-Americans arent really Biden's biggest problem area.
